MLB advanced stats glossary: A guide to baseball stats
- MLB advanced stats glossary: A guide to baseball stats
- Baseball stats explained for beginners: Batting statistics
- Baseball Stats Abbreviations - What Do They Mean
- What is a Batting Average (AVG)? | Glossary | MLB.com
- The Ultimate Guide to Batting Average in Baseball
- Baseball statistics - BR Bullpen
- Bayesball: Bayesian analysis of batting average | by Ricky
- Standard Stats | Glossary | MLB.com - Major League Baseball
- Batting Stats Glossary | Baseball-Reference.com
- Most Common Baseball Stats Abbreviations
baseball batting stats meaning
baseball batting stats meaning - win
baseballstats: any weird or interesting baseball facts
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CBS Article: Why MLB teams might start changing how they value high-contact hitters (McNeil mentioned)
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-mlb-teams-might-start-changing-how-they-value-high-contact-hitters/ Is a high-average renaissance coming in baseball? By Matt Snyder
"Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" was published in 2003. Michael Lewis' book was then turned into a movie that was released in 2011. And yet, in 2021, there are still so many people out there with the misconception that playing "Moneyball" was about a specific stat ("Moneyball is on-base percentage!" the ignorant will cry out) or even some sort of "sabermetrics" revolution to make people hate the stats they long held near and dear in favor of "newfangled" stuff.
I'll pause for laughter.
No, it's actually about finding market inefficiencies. That is, what skillsets are other teams undervaluing and how can we acquire players -- mostly cheaply -- to exploit this for our gain. There have been several iterations since the initial movement from average to OBP and slugging. Defense is certainly up there, a combination of shifting/positioning and getting undervalued defensive players. Things have obviously been done on the pitching side, such as shortening the game with super bullpens and using openers, among other things.
In light of where things are headed right now in baseball, I'm wondering if we're coming full circle very soon with what type of hitter is undervalued.
That is to say, while the initial "Moneyball" movement set baseball on a path, where average was less important than the other two main rate stats (meaning more emphasis was put on drawing walks -- and, in related matters, working deep counts -- and hitting for power). In the process, we have seen a great shift toward the so-called Three True Outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts).
As a result, who got left a bit behind? The high-average, high-contact hitters, possibly with low power.
I said I'm wondering if we're about to come full circle because not only do I believe there's a chance at a market inefficiency in there, I also think the forces of the game are swinging toward this type of hitter being undervalued.
Strikeouts continue to rise. More and more, it seems like whichever team each game hits "the big home run" is the one that goes on to win. Here are the lowest batting averages in MLB since World War I:
1968: .237 1967: .242 1972: .244 2020: .245 If we're wondering about the small sample or want to blame the pandemic, the 2019 average was .252 and the league hit .248 in 2018.
If some of those years above jumped out, it's for good reason. After 1967-68, the pitcher's mound was lowered. After 1972, the American League added the DH.
Meanwhile, in 2020, strikeouts per team game actually dropped -- to the second-most all-time -- from 2019, but 2020 marked the first year it wasn't a new strikeouts per game record since 2007.
It's gotten to the point that it isn't just a small subset fans or curmudgeon broadcasters whining. Many baseball fans acknowledge the game needs more on-field action. At this point, pretty open-minded and even-keel people are discussing that something has to change. Home runs are great. Walks were far too long an underappreciated part of the game. Big strikeouts are excellent to watch. It's just that we should have more than those things along with groundballs and fly balls going right at nearly perfectly positioned defenders.
On one hand, the pitchers and defense are very good. On another, maybe the shift in philosophy left too many different types of hitters behind. Maybe things should tilt back a bit the other way?
After stepping down from his perch as Cubs president, Theo Epstein took a job with the commissioner's office and said something along these lines (emphasis mine).
"As the game evolves, we all have an interest in ensuring the changes we see on the field make the game as entertaining and action-packed as possible for the fans, while preserving all that makes baseball so special. I look forward to working with interested parties throughout the industry to help us collectively navigate toward the very best version of our game."
He had recently sort of lamented his own role in shaping the game, too. Via The Athletic:
"There are some threats to it because of the way the game is evolving," Epstein said. "I take some responsibility for that. Executives like me who have spent a lot of time using analytics and other measures to try to optimize individual and team performance have unwittingly had a negative impact on the aesthetic value of the game and the entertainment value of the game in some respects."
The hunch here is Epstein will have commissioner Rob Manfred's ear pretty strongly in the next few years. We've also already seen Manfred discussing things like either banning or limiting the shift along with something to curtail strikeouts, such as lowering and/or moving back the mound.
Zeroing in on the possibility of shifts going away, and low-strikeout guys become even more valuable. It doesn't take an Epstein-savvy front office member to figure out the chances of finding a hole without the defense perfectly crafted to a spray chart increase.
Further, after seeing so many strikeouts in huge spots with runners on base over the past several years, I can't help but think that even if a hitter that sits something like .230/.340/.500 can be valuable, evening that out with a high-average contact hitter to keep the line moving at times would be beneficial in creating a more well-rounded lineup.
The poster boy here is D.J. LeMahieu. Believe it or not, Epstein actually inherited him with the Cubs, but traded him away his first offseason with Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. Stewart looked like the high-walk, high-power guy teams coveted at the time (important update: He wasn't). Despite winning a batting title, winning three Gold Gloves and making two All-Star teams, LeMahieu only got a two-year, $24 million deal with the Yankees after the 2018 season as mostly an afterthought in a huge offseason. He went on to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. Then he finished third last season, leading the majors with a .364 average while also pacing the AL in OBP, OPS and OPS+.
Finally heavily sought after, LeMahieu got six years and $90 million to stay with the Yankees this offseason. Yes, he's developed his power, but he only struck out 90 times in 655 plate appearances in 2019 and 21 times in 195 plate appearances in 2020.
With everything conspiring in this direction anyway, I think LeMahieu is starting a wave.
Here are some others (in a non-exhaustive list) who could become increasingly valuable moving forward into the next decade of baseball evolution.
Tommy La Stella - A broken leg cost La Stella half the 2019 season in what looked like his career year. He already had 16 homers, yet had still only struck out 28 times in 321 plate appearances. Last year, he had the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball while hitting .281 with a .370 OBP.
Ketel Marte - Pay too much attention to the loss of power in just 45 games last year at your peril. He still hit .287 and was tough to strikeout. I'm not expecting a full bounce-back to MVP-caliber levels of 2019, but his bat-on-ball skills have pretty steadily improved for five years straight.
David Fletcher - He's improved all three years in all three rate stats and sports a career .292 average with just 123 strikeouts in 1,190 plate appearances. He also ranks near the very bottom of the league in stuff like barrel percentage, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Sending some conventional 2019 people running for the hills is a good trait for someone to have when looking for market inefficiency, right?
Jeff McNeil - Why pick between McNeil and a Pete Alonso type when you have both? McNeil in 248 career games is a .319 hitter with only 123 strikeouts in 1,024 plate appearances. Like Fletcher, his "batted ball profile" leaves a lot to be desired, too.
Trea Turner - We've seen former Turner teammates Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon strike it very rich in free agency while his current teammate Juan Soto rightfully will garner a ton more attention here in the short term. Just don't forget about Trea. His strikeout percentages aren't excessive -- remember, as a leadoff man he takes tons of plate appearances -- and he's a career .296 hitter. He makes consistent contact, has some power and can fly.
Kevin Newman - Newman had a dreadful 2020 season, but it was only 45 games in the middle of a pandemic. I'm not going to harp on that when we've got 130 games of a .308 hitter in 2019 who only struck out 62 times in 531 plate appearances. Don't sleep on him.
Jean Segura - Segura became a different hitter in 2020. His strikeout percentage jumped from 11.8 to 20.7. Along with it went his previously high average. But he walked a lot more and his OBP went up. It was weird. Regardless, keep in mind what a fluky season 2020 was. Segura was in the top five percent of toughest hitters to strikeout in 2018 and 2019 while topping a .300 average 2016-18. He's 30. I have faith in him being productive with a good average and lower strikeout rate in 2021. And hey, maybe he'll even keep walking. I never said it was bad.
Jake Cronenworth - As a rookie last year, Cronenworth put together a season in which he would've struck out around 90 times in a full year while hitting .285. His minor-league and amateur profile has long shown someone with good contact skills capable of a higher average. He was never a top-100 prospect in the minors, but he now heads into territory where he can have an impact simply by being differently valuable than the 2010s prototype.
To be clear, this premise isn't even remotely saying teams should load up on only these types of players. The best lineups are the most well-rounded. Get you a few of these types to pair with some big boppers and things would be looking pretty damn nice. The conditions are ripe for a bit of a sea change in how hitters are valued in these next few years. Watch LeMahieu, La Stella and company for a guide while someone like Cronenworth carries the torch to the next generation.
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A comprehensive list of books that will help you think clearly
A comprehensive list of books that might be of interest to people that want to read something that would improve their thinking or some friends?
I have not read many of these, thus I can not personally vouch for all of them or recommend one over the other.
I'm not affiliated with Goodreads, but linked to them since I wanted to include the ratings and they have links to several different sources including libraries if you want to borrow or acquire any one of these, and often some quality reviews.
The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths by Michael Shermer 3.93 · Rating details · 6,985 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9754534-the-believing-brain The Believing Brain is bestselling author Michael Shermer's comprehensive and provocative theory on how beliefs are born, formed, reinforced, challenged, changed, and extinguished.
In this work synthesizing thirty years of research, psychologist, historian of science, and the world's best-known skeptic Michael Shermer upends the traditional thinking about how humans form beliefs about the world. Simply put, beliefs come first and explanations for beliefs follow. The brain, Shermer argues, is a belief engine. From sensory data flowing in through the senses, the brain naturally begins to look for and find patterns, and then infuses those patterns with meaning. Our brains connect the dots of our world into meaningful patterns that explain why things happen, and these patterns become beliefs. Once beliefs are formed the brain begins to look for and find confirmatory evidence in support of those beliefs, which accelerates the process of reinforcing them, and round and round the process goes in a positive-feedback loop of belief confirmation. Shermer outlines the numerous cognitive tools our brains engage to reinforce our beliefs as truths.
Interlaced with his theory of belief, Shermer provides countless real-world examples of how this process operates, from politics, economics, and religion to conspiracy theories, the supernatural, and the paranormal. Ultimately, he demonstrates why science is the best tool ever devised to determine whether or not a belief matches reality.
Critical Thinking: Tools for Taking Charge of Your Professional and Personal Life by Richard Paul, Linda Elder
3.93 · Rating details · 1,082 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17296839-critical-thinking Critical Thinking is about becoming a better thinker in every aspect of your life: in your career, and as a consumer, citizen, friend, parent, and lover.
Discover the core skills of effective thinking; then analyze your own thought processes, identify weaknesses, and overcome them. Learn how to translate more effective thinking into better decisions, less frustration, more wealth Ñ and above all, greater confidence to pursue and achieve your most important goals in life.
The Thinker's Guide to Analytic Thinking by Linda Elder,Richard Paul
3.89 · Rating details · 163 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19227921-the-thinker-s-guide-to-analytic-thinking This guide focuses on the intellectual skills that enable one to analyze anything one might think about - questions, problems, disciplines, subjects, etc. It provides the common denominator between all forms of analysis.
It is based on the assumption that all reasoning can be taken apart and analyzed for quality.
This guide introduces the elements of reasoning as implicit in all reasoning. It begins with this idea - that whenever we think, we think for a purpose, within a point of view, based on assumptions, leading to implications and consequences. We use data, facts and experiences (information), to make inferences and judgments,based on concepts and theories to answer a question or solve a problem. Thus the elements of thought are: purpose, questions, information, inferences, assumptions, concepts, implications and point of view. In this guide, authors Linda Elder and Richard Paul explain, exemplify and contextualize these elements or structures of thought, showing the importance of analyzing reasoning in every part of human life. This guide can be used as a supplement to any text or course at the college level; and it may be used for improving thinking in personal and professional life.
The Thinker's Guide to Intellectual Standards by Linda Elder, Richard Paul
4.19 · Rating details · 16 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19017637-the-thinker-s-guide-to-intellectual-standards Humans routinely assess thinking – their own thinking, and that of others, and yet they don’t necessarily use standards for thought that are reasonable, rational, sound.
To think well, people need to routinely meet intellectual standards, standards of clarity, precision, accuracy, relevance, depth, logic, fairness, significance, and so forth.
In this guide authors Elder and Paul offer a brief analysis of some of the most important intellectual standards in the English language. They look at the opposites of these standards. They argue for their contextualization within subjects and disciplines. And, they call attention to the forces that undermine their skilled use in thinking well. At present intellectual standards tend to be either taught implicitly, or ignored in instruction. Yet because they are essential to high quality reasoning in every part of human life, they should be explicitly taught and explicitly understood.
The Truth Seeker’s Handbook: A Science-Based Guide by Gleb Tsipursky (Goodreads Author) 4.24 · Rating details · 63 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36800752-the-truth-seeker-s-handbook How do you know whether something is true? How do you convince others to believe the facts?
Research shows that the human mind is prone to making thinking errors - predictable mistakes that cause us to believe comfortable lies over inconvenient truths. These errors leave us vulnerable to making decisions based on false beliefs, leading to disastrous consequences for our personal lives, relationships, careers, civic and political engagement, and for our society as a whole.
Fortunately, cognitive and behavioral scientists have uncovered many useful strategies for overcoming our mental flaws.
This book presents a variety of research-based tools for ensuring that our beliefs are aligned with reality.
With examples from daily life and an engaging style, the book will provide you with the skills to avoid thinking errors and help others to do so, preventing disasters and facilitating success for yourself, those you care about, and our society.
On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not by Robert A. Burton 3.90 · Rating details · 2,165 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2740964-on-being-certain You recognize when you know something for certain, right? You "know" the sky is blue, or that the traffic light had turned green, or where you were on the morning of September 11, 2001--you know these things, well, because you just do. In On Being Certain, neurologist Robert Burton challenges the notions of how we think about what we know.
He shows that the feeling of certainty we have when we "know" something comes from sources beyond our control and knowledge.
In fact, certainty is a mental sensation, rather than evidence of fact.
Because this "feeling of knowing" seems like confirmation of knowledge, we tend to think of it as a product of reason.
But an increasing body of evidence suggests that feelings such as certainty stem from primitive areas of the brain, and are independent of active, conscious reflection and reasoning. The feeling of knowing happens to us; we cannot make it happen. Bringing together cutting edge neuroscience, experimental data, and fascinating anecdotes, Robert Burton explores the inconsistent and sometimes paradoxical relationship between our thoughts and what we actually know.
Provocative and groundbreaking, On Being Certain, will challenge what you know (or think you know) about the mind, knowledge, and reason.
The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us by Christopher Chabris,Daniel Simons 3.91 · Rating details · 13,537 ratings · 704 reviews
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7783191-the-invisible-gorilla Reading this book will make you less sure of yourself—and that’s a good thing. In The Invisible Gorilla, Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, creators of one of psychology’s most famous experiments, use remarkable stories and counterintuitive scientific findings to demonstrate an important truth: Our minds don’t work the way we think they do. We think we see ourselves and the world as they really are, but we’re actually missing a whole lot.
Again and again, we think we experience and understand the world as it is, but our thoughts are beset by everyday illusions. We write traffic laws and build criminal cases on the assumption that people will notice when something unusual happens right in front of them. We’re sure we know where we were on 9/11, falsely believing that vivid memories are seared into our minds with perfect fidelity. And as a society, we spend billions on devices to train our brains because we’re continually tempted by the lure of quick fixes and effortless self-improvement.
The Invisible Gorilla reveals the myriad ways that our intuitions can deceive us, but it’s much more than a catalog of human failings. Chabris and Simons explain why we succumb to these everyday illusions and what we can do to inoculate ourselves against their effects. Ultimately, the book provides a kind of x-ray vision into our own minds, making it possible to pierce the veil of illusions that clouds our thoughts and to think clearly for perhaps the first time.
Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking by M. Neil Browne, Stuart M. Keeley
3.94 · Rating details · 1,290 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/394398.Asking_the_Right_Questions The habits and attitudes associated with critical thinking are transferable to consumer, medical, legal, and general ethical choices. When our surgeon says surgery is needed, it can be life sustaining to seek answers to the critical questions encouraged in Asking the Right Questions This popular book helps bridge the gap between simply memorizing or blindly accepting information, and the greater challenge of critical analysing the things we are told and read. It gives strategies for responding to alternative points of view and will help readers develop a solid foundation for making personal choices about what to accept and what to reject.
On Truth by Simon Blackburn 3.60 · Rating details · 62 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36722220-on-truth Truth is not just a recent topic of contention. Arguments about it have gone on for centuries. Why is the truth important? Who decides what the truth is? Is there such a thing as objective, eternal truth, or is truth simply a matter of perspective, of linguistic or cultural vantage point?
In this concise book Simon Blackburn provides an accessible explanation of what truth is and how we might think about it.
The first half of the book details several main approaches to how we should think about, and decide, what is true.
These are philosophical theories of truth such as the correspondence theory, the coherence theory, deflationism, and others.
He then examines how those approaches relate to truth in several contentious domains: art, ethics, reasoning, religion, and the interpretation of texts.
Blackburn's overall message is that truth is often best thought of not as a product or an end point that is 'finally' achieved, but--as the American pragmatist thinkers thought of it--as an ongoing process of inquiry. The result is an accessible and tour through some of the deepest and thorniest questions philosophy has ever tackled
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
4.16 · Rating details · 317,352 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=ZNhf1bAIxd&rank=1 In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. The impact of loss aversion and overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the challenges of properly framing risks at work and at home, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning the next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems work together to shape our judgments and decisions.
Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking.
He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Thinking, Fast and Slow will transform the way you think about thinking.
Before You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do What We Do by John A. Bargh (Goodreads Author)
3.97 · Rating details · 788 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35011639-before-you-know-it Dr. John Bargh, the world’s leading expert on the unconscious mind, presents a “brilliant and convincing book” (Malcolm Gladwell) cited as an outstanding read of 2017 by Business Insider and The Financial Times—giving us an entirely new understanding of the hidden mental processes that secretly govern every aspect of our behavior.
For more than three decades, Dr. John Bargh has conducted revolutionary research into the unconscious mind, research featured in bestsellers like Blink and Thinking Fast and Slow. Now, in what Dr. John Gottman said was “the most important and exciting book in psychology that has been written in the past twenty years,” Dr. Bargh takes us on an entertaining and enlightening tour of the forces that affect everyday behavior while transforming our understanding of ourselves in profound ways.
Dr. Bargh takes us into his labs at New York University and Yale—where he and his colleagues have discovered how the unconscious guides our behavior, goals, and motivations in areas like race relations, parenting, business, consumer behavior, and addiction.
With infectious enthusiasm he reveals what science now knows about the pervasive influence of the unconscious mind in who we choose to date or vote for, what we buy, where we live, how we perform on tests and in job interviews, and much more.
Because the unconscious works in ways we are completely unaware of, Before You Know It is full of surprising and entertaining revelations as well as useful tricks to help you remember items on your to-do list, to shop smarter, and to sleep better.
Before You Know It is “a fascinating compendium of landmark social-psychology research” (Publishers Weekly) and an introduction to a fabulous world that exists below the surface of your awareness and yet is the key to knowing yourself and unlocking new ways of thinking, feeling, and behaving.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38315.Fooled_by_Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4.07 · Rating details · 49,010 ratings
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand.
Philosophy books Epistemology by Richard Feldman 3.84 · Rating details · 182 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/387295.Epistemology Sophisticated yet accessible and easy to read, this introduction to contemporary philosophical questions about knowledge and rationality goes beyond the usual bland survey of the major current views to show that there is argument involved. Throughout, the author provides a fair and balanced blending of the standard positions on epistemology with his own carefully reasoned positions or stances into the analysis of each concept. KEY TOPICS: Epistemological Questions. The Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Modifying the Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Evidentialist Theories of Justification. Non-evidentialist Theories of Knowledge and Justification. Skepticism. Epistemology and Science. Relativism.
Problems of Knowledge: A Critical Introduction to Epistemology by Michael J. Williams
3.79 · Rating details · 86 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477904.Problems_of_Knowledge "What is epistemology or 'the theory of knowledge'? Why does it matter? What makes theorizing about knowledge 'philosophical'? And why do some philosophers argue that epistemology - perhaps even philosophy itself - is dead?" "
In this introduction, Michael Williams answers these questions, showing how epistemological theorizing is sensitive to a range of questions about the nature, limits, methods, and value of knowing.
He pays special attention to the challenge of philosophical scepticism: does our 'knowledge' rest on brute assumptions? Does the rational outlook undermine itself?"
Williams explains and criticizes all the main contemporary philosophical perspectives on human knowledge, such as foundationalism, the coherence theory, and 'naturalistic' theories. As an alternative to all of them, he defends his distinctive contextualist approach.
As well as providing an accessible introduction for any reader approaching the subject for the first time, this book incorporates Williams's own ideas which will be of interest to all philosophers concerned with the theory of knowledge.
Philosophy: The Basics by Nigel Warburton 3.84 · Rating details · 1,928 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31854.Philosophy Now in its fourth edition, Nigel Warburton's best-selling book gently eases the reader into the world of philosophy. Each chapter considers a key area of philosophy, explaining and exploring the basic ideas and themes.
What is philosophy? Can you prove God exists? Is there an afterlife? How do we know right from wrong? Should you ever break the law? Is the world really the way you think it is? How should we define Freedom of Speech? Do you know how science works? Is your mind different from your body? Can you define art? For the fourth edition, Warburton has added new sections to several chapters, revised others and brought the further reading sections up to date. If you've ever asked what is philosophy, or whether the world is really the way you think it is, then this is the book for you.
The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/14829260-the-oxford-handbook-of-thinking-and-reasoning by Keith J. Holyoak (Editor), Robert G. Morrison (Editor)
4.08 · Rating details · 12 ratings
Thinking and reasoning, long the academic province of philosophy, have over the past century emerged as core topics of empirical investigation and theoretical analysis in the modern fields of cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience. Formerly seen as too complicated and amorphous to be included in early textbooks on the science of cognition, the study of thinking and reasoning has since taken off, brancing off in a distinct direction from the field from which it originated.
The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is a comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning.
Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading.
Chapters include introductions to foundational issues and methods of study in the field, as well as treatment of specific types of thinking and reasoning and their application in a broad range of fields including business, education, law, medicine, music, and science.
The volume will be of interest to scholars and students working in developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, education, and linguistics.
Feminist Epistemologies (Thinking Gender) by Linda Martín Alcoff, Elizabeth Potter 4.14 · Rating details · 43 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477960.Feminist_Epistemologies Noticed this review by an evangelical:
"I have found this an immensely suggestive book, collecting as it does essays from both prominent and rising figures in feminist philosophy of knowledge--albeit from about two decades ago. I am struck by how little impact feminist thought, even of this high and generally temperate quality, has had on evangelical theology, to the shame of my guild."
-John
The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone - Especially Ourselves by Dan Ariely 3.94 · Rating details · 13,620 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13426114-the-honest-truth-about-dishonesty The New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality returns with thought-provoking work to challenge our preconceptions about dishonesty and urge us to take an honest look at ourselves.
Does the chance of getting caught affect how likely we are to cheat? How do companies pave the way for dishonesty? Does collaboration make us more honest or less so? Does religion improve our honesty?
Most of us think of ourselves as honest, but, in fact, we all cheat.
From Washington to Wall Street, the classroom to the workplace, unethical behavior is everywhere. None of us is immune, whether it's the white lie to head off trouble or padding our expense reports. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, award-winning, bestselling author Dan Ariely turns his unique insight and innovative research to the question of dishonesty.
Generally, we assume that cheating, like most other decisions, is based on a rational cost-benefit analysis.
But Ariely argues, and then demonstrates, that it's actually the irrational forces that we don't take into account that often determine whether we behave ethically or not.
For every Enron or political bribe, there are countless puffed résumés, hidden commissions, and knockoff purses. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Ariely shows why some things are easier to lie about; how getting caught matters less than we think; and how business practices pave the way for unethical behavior, both intentionally and unintentionally. Ariely explores how unethical behavior works in the personal, professional, and political worlds, and how it affects all of us, even as we think of ourselves as having high moral standards.
But all is not lost. Ariely also identifies what keeps us honest, pointing the way for achieving higher ethics in our everyday lives. With compelling personal and academic findings, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty will change the way we see ourselves, our actions, and others.
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark by Carl Sagan, Ann Druyan (Goodreads Author)
4.27 · Rating details · 59,893 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17349.The_Demon_Haunted_World How can we make intelligent decisions about our increasingly technology-driven lives if we don’t understand the difference between the myths of pseudoscience and the testable hypotheses of science? Pulitzer Prize-winning author and distinguished astronomer Carl Sagan argues that scientific thinking is critical not only to the pursuit of truth but to the very well-being of our democratic institutions.
Casting a wide net through history and culture, Sagan examines and authoritatively debunks such celebrated fallacies of the past as witchcraft, faith healing, demons, and UFOs. And yet, disturbingly, in today's so-called information age, pseudoscience is burgeoning with stories of alien abduction, channeling past lives, and communal hallucinations commanding growing attention and respect. As Sagan demonstrates with lucid eloquence, the siren song of unreason is not just a cultural wrong turn but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms.
What Is the Name of This Book? by Raymond M. Smullyan
4.24 · Rating details · 757 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/493576.What_Is_the_Name_of_This_Book_ If you're intrigued by puzzles and paradoxes, these 200 mind-bending logic puzzles, riddles, and diversions will thrill you with challenges to your powers of reason and common sense. Raymond M. Smullyan — a celebrated mathematician, logician, magician, and author — presents a logical labyrinth of more than 200 increasingly complex problems. The puzzles delve into Gödel’s undecidability theorem and other examples of the deepest paradoxes of logic and set theory. Detailed solutions follow each puzzle
The Art of Logic in an Illogical World by Eugenia Cheng 3.55 · Rating details · 740 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38400400-the-art-of-logic-in-an-illogical-world How both logical and emotional reasoning can help us live better in our post-truth world
In a world where fake news stories change election outcomes, has rationality become futile? In The Art of Logic in an Illogical World, Eugenia Cheng throws a lifeline to readers drowning in the illogic of contemporary life. Cheng is a mathematician, so she knows how to make an airtight argument. But even for her, logic sometimes falls prey to emotion, which is why she still fears flying and eats more cookies than she should. If a mathematician can't be logical, what are we to do? In this book, Cheng reveals the inner workings and limitations of logic, and explains why alogic--for example, emotion--is vital to how we think and communicate. Cheng shows us how to use logic and alogic together to navigate a world awash in bigotry, mansplaining, and manipulative memes. Insightful, useful, and funny, this essential book is for anyone who wants to think more clearly.
How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age by Theodore Schick Jr. Lewis Vaughn, Martin Gardner (Foreword)
4.00 · Rating details · 530 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41756.How_to_Think_about_Weird_Things This text serves well as a supplemental text in:
- critical thinking
- logic
- introduction to philosophy
- philosophy of science
- epistemology
- metaphysics
- introduction to psychology
- anomalistic psychology
- perception and cognition
as well as any introductory science course.
It has been used in all of the courses mentioned above as well as introductory biology, introductory physics, and introductory chemistry courses. It could also serve as a main text for courses in evaluation of the paranormal, philosophical implications of the paranormal, occult beliefs, and pseudoscience.
Popular Statistics Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data by Charles Wheelan 3.94 · Rating details · 10,367 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't by Nate Silver
3.98 · Rating details · 43,804 ratings · 3,049 reviews
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13588394-the-signal-and-the-noise One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012
New York Times Bestseller
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." -New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." -New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks by Will Kurt 4.20 · Rating details · 126 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41392893-bayesian-statistics-the-fun-way Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.
Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.
This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.
By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:
- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them
Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions by Brian Christian (Goodreads Author), Tom Griffiths (Goodreads Author)
4.15 · Rating details · 19,580 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/25666050-algorithms-to-live-by A fascinating exploration of how insights from computer algorithms can be applied to our everyday lives, helping to solve common decision-making problems and illuminate the workings of the human mind
All our lives are constrained by limited space and time, limits that give rise to a particular set of problems. What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? What balance of new activities and familiar favorites is the most fulfilling? These may seem like uniquely human quandaries, but they are not: computers, too, face the same constraints, so computer scientists have been grappling with their version of such issues for decades. And the solutions they've found have much to teach us.
In a dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, acclaimed author Brian Christian and cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths show how the algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others. From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.
The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World by David Deutsch 4.12 · Rating details · 5,026 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/10483171-the-beginning-of-infinity The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Transform the World
In this book David Deutsch argue that all progress, both theoretical and practical, has resulted from a single human activity: the quest for what I call good explanations. Though this quest is uniquely human, its effectiveness is also a fundamental fact about reality at the most impersonal cosmic level – namely that it conforms to universal laws of nature that are indeed good explanations. This simple relationship between the cosmic and the human is a hint of a central role of people in the cosmic scheme of things.
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Player of the Day (2/5/21): AJ Pollock
It's Friday - meaning one of the reigning world champs gets today's spotlight. Let me know who you want me to feature in the future.
BASICS:
Born: December 5, 1987
Jersey Number: 11
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Position: Outfield
Drafted: 2009 by the Diamondbacks, Round 1, Pick 17
MLB Debut: April 18, 2012
Teams: Diamondbacks (2009-2018), Dodgers (2019-present)
2020 STATS:
Games: 55
Batting Average: 0.276
OBP: 0.314
SLG: 0.566
OPS: 0.881
Runs: 30
Hits: 54
Doubles: 9
Triples: 0
Home Runs: 16
RBIs: 34
Stolen Bases: 2
CAREER STATS:
Games: 778
Batting Average: 0.279
OBP: 0.335
SLG: 0.474
OPS: 0.809
Runs: 446
Hits: 776
Doubles: 168
Triples: 30
Home Runs: 105
RBIs: 345
Stolen Bases: 110
CAREER AWARDS:
All Star - 2015
Gold Glove - 2015
NL Player of the Month - April 2018
NL Player of the Week - 5/19/14, 6/2/14, 8/24/15, 5/6/18
Diamondbacks Rookie of the Year - 2013
MiLB All Star - 2011, 2012
THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT KNOW:
He played baseball for Notre Dame and was on the All Big East first team.
In the past, he played third base.
Despite going by AJ, his name is Allen Lorenz.
His wife was a lacrosse player for Notre Dame.
His daughter, a 24 week preemie, was born in May.
HIS BEST 2020 MOMENTS:
He had two homers in the last regular season game of 2020 He was part of a five-run inning in Game 3 of the NLDS He got his 100th career homer this year Here's a good three-run homer OTHER GREAT MOMENTS:
In 2018, he came a double short of the cycle He was one of four Dbacks to hit a triple in the 2017 NLWC game WHY I LIKE HIM:
He seems like a nice person and he's a good player, too.
PAST PLAYERS:
11/9: Mike Trout 11/10: Clayton Kershaw 11/11: Shane Bieber 11/12: Trevor Bauer 11/13: Freddie Freeman 11/14: Francisco Lindor 11/15: Jose Abreu 11/16: Kyle Lewis 11/17: Devin Williams 11/18: Randy Arozarena 11/19: Framber Valdéz 11/20: Rhys Hoskins 11/21: Kris Bryant 11/22: Willians Astudillo 11/23: Carlos Carrasco 11/24: Anthony Rizzo 11/25-11/27: Break
11/28: Mike Yastrzemski 11/29: Chris Taylor 11/30: Josh Naylor 12/1: Stephen Souza Jr 12/2: Joc Pederson 12/3: Hanser Alberto 12/4: Wil Myers 12/5: Christian Yelich 12/6: Nick Ahmed 12/7: Franmil Reyes 12/8: David Fletcher 12/9: Max Muncy 12/10: Mookie Betts 12/11: Brandon Nimmo 12/12: Chadwick Tromp 12/13: Corey Seager 12/14: James Karinchak 12/15: David Peralta 12/16: Sean Doolittle 12/17: Trey Mancini 12/18: Cody Bellinger 12/19: Nolan Arenado 12/20: Juan Soto 12/21: Aaron Civale 12/22: Rich Hill 12/23: Xander Bogaerts 12/24-12/26: Break
12/27: Jeff McNeil 12/28: Zach Plesac 12/29: Matt Chapman 12/30: Ke'Bryan Hayes 12/31-1/1: Break
1/2: Adam Wainwright 1/3: Joey Votto 1/4: Jordan Luplow 1/5: Alex Gordon 1/6: Miguel Cabrera 1/7: Jesús Aguilar 1/8: Joey Gallo 1/9: Vladimir Guerrero Jr 1/10: Aaron Judge 1/11: Oscar Mercado 1/12: Ronald Acuña Jr 1/13: Buster Posey 1/14: Stephen Strasburg 1/15: Joe Kelly 1/16: Seth Lugo 1/17: John Means 1/18: Adam Plutko 1/19: Anthony Santander 1/20: Mike Moustakas 1/21: Whit Merrifield 1/22: Walker Buehler 1/23: Josh Donaldson 1/24: Miguel Rojas 1/25: Triston McKenzie 1/26: Trevor Story 1/27: Matt Olson 1/28: Tim Anderson 1/29: Kiké Hernandez 1/30: Cole Tucker 1/31: Dexter Fowler 2/1: César Hernández 2/2: Andrew McCutchen 2/3: Kyle Seager 2/4: Rougned Odor submitted by kerryfinchelhillary to baseball [link] [comments]
Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #14: Randy Wolf
Sup. You might be wondering what this is. In short, the Hall of Fame ballot doesn't include everyone who qualifies for it. Some dudes cut off names they don't like or remember to make it shorter. This is where I talk about the guys who got cut. I've done this 13 other times if you couldn't tell by the number and they're at the bottom if you want to read them after this one. Now to this one.
Randy Wolf
Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 6
Career bWAR (16 years): 22.8 (19.5 w/o batting)
Stats: 133-125, 4.24 ERA, 99 ERA+, 379 GS, 2328.1 IP, 831 BB, 1814 K, 1.349 WHIP
League Leading Stats: Games Started (34, 2009)
Awards: All-Star (2003)
Teams Played For: Phillies (1999-2006), Dodgers (2007, 2009), Padres (2008), Astros (2008), Brewers (2010-12), Orioles (2012), Marlins (2014), Tigers (2015)
Famed poet Lucille Clifton once wrote, "There is a girl inside. She is randy as a wolf. She will not walk away and leave these bones to an old woman." Seemed as good an opening as any to talk about the person that poem was clearly referencing, Randy Asa Wolf. (Please ignore the part where his middle name is actually Christopher) Wolf was a left-handed starting pitcher for 16 years, played on several teams, did pretty well sometimes, not so well some other times, and retired. Generally, pitchers like him are remembered in the hearts and minds of fans of the teams he pitched for, but not by an appearance on the ballot. Players like Steve Trachsel, Kevin Tapani, and Ismael Valdez suffered a similar fate. And so it was for Randy. All the same, he did a fair amount during his career. Certainly didn't walk away and leave those bones to an old woman.
When Randy Wolf was but a Randy Pup, he was drafted in the 25th round of the 1994 draft out of high school. He went to Pepperdine instead, and did so well that in 1997, the Phillies chose him with their 2nd round pick. He'd end up being their highest signed draft choice because J.D. Drew elected not to sign with them after being selected second overall. Much like wolf pups acclimate to the outside world in just a couple months, it didn't take very long for Randy to get used to the baseball world. His 5-0 record and 1.80 ERA in seven lower-A starts showed he was 100% worth the Phillies' high pick. The next year, before he'd even turned 22, Randy was starting games at the triple-A level, and doing very well. In roughly the same time it takes a wolf to reach full maturity, two years after he was drafted, Randy Canis Lupus was on a Major League roster. For his first appearance, he'd be starting a game versus the Toronto Blue Jays. A Blue Jays team whose heart of the lineup was Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado, and Tony Fernandez was held to only six hits and one run in 5.2 innings from Randy Wolf. After he'd captured a win in 5 of his first 7 starts, his spot in the rotation became permanent. Especially noteworthy considering he had competition like Chad Ogea and Carlton Loewer, who are recognized in several circles as "Who Now" and "Should I Know Him." Wolf's year ended on a sour note, both as a pitcher and a member of the Phillies. After that 5-0 start, Wolf would start 14 more games, and go 1-9 in them with a 6.90 ERA throughout. Likewise, Philadelphia, who were 67-59 a week before September started, went 1-16 over their next 17 games, and limped into the offseason at 77-85. While Wolf's 6-9, 5.55 ERA year was definitely worse than he'd wanted, it was still worth 0.3 bWAR. After all, this was the late 90s, and balanced breakfasts of testosterone and HGH were all the rage. He also struck out 116 so that helped too. The positives of his time starting games, coupled with the fact he was only 23 at season's end, all but glued his name to a rotation spot for the next year.
Much in the way that wolves stick together, Randy Wolf would remain a fixture in the Phillies rotation for the next seven years. He'd start 169 games, going 63-51 with a 4.06 ERA, 855 strikeouts, 367 walks, a 1.303 WHIP, and a 105 ERA+. He had his share of highs and lows with the team. And there were many highs, and many lows.
- In 2000, he held the Brewers at bay with a quality start in early July, and gave the 38-44 Phillies a glimmer of hope that they could turn the season around. Then he watched the team trade staff ace Curt Schilling three weeks later, and despite Wolf’s 11-9 record and 3.0 bWAR, Philadelphia ended up losing 97 games.
- In 2001, he had the best start of the Phillies' year in late September: a 1H, 1BB, 8K shutout of the Cincinnati Reds. He faced only 28 batters, and almost singlehandedly kept the team in the playoff hunt that day. Then Philadelphia finished at 86-76, losing the division race to the Braves with just three games left. 10-11 and a 3.70 ERA with 152 strikeouts in 25 starts was all Wolf could give, but it wasn't quite enough.
- In 2002, Wolf took his turn as the staff ace, putting up the lowest ERA, the lowest WHIP, and the most strikeouts of any regular Phillies pitcher that year. Over a four-start stretch between August 16th and September 5th, Wolf pitched three complete games and 35 total innings, allowed only one run, struck out 30, and sent the Wolf Pack, his special cheering section, into a frenzy. He pitched those games, and another 8-inning 1-hit 2-walk no-run 11-strikeout masterpiece a week later, in memory of a member of that cheering section who tragically lost his life earlier that year. He also only got the Phillies just above .500 with those games, at a time when the wild card was all but out of reach. They'd finish at 80-81, 21.5 games behind the Braves, and 15 games behind the wild-card Giants.
- In 2003, Kevin Millwood was acquired in the offseason, meaning Wolf, thankfully, would no longer be expected to be the staff ace. Nevertheless, after his first 17 starts, he was 9-3 with 100 third strikes. On the back of his record, and the unexpected success of the Phillies who were in a wild card spot at that point, he was voted into the All-Star game for the first time in his career. He slowed down toward the end of September, but was still good, finishing at 16-10 with a 4.23 ERA and a career best 177 strikeouts. The Phillies were within a game of the wild card with just five games left in the season. A three-game sweep by the team ahead of them, the Florida Marlins, ended their playoff hopes prematurely, with Wolf allowing four runs in four innings to lose the last of the series, and the wild card clincher, in Miami.
- From 2004 to 2006 Wolf went 15-12 over the three-year stretch. His team would go from 86-76 to 88-74 to 85-77 over that time. He'd strike out 198 in his 48 starts, and while his 4.58 ERA was just good enough for a 99 ERA+, the Wolf Pack wouldn't let up. He even hit two home runs when he was facing the Rockies. Game was in Philadelphia, if you can believe it. And yet, he had injury problems that caused him to miss the majority of both June and September in 2004. Then after he hadn’t missed a start in 2005, he was diagnosed with a torn UCL right before the All-Star break and would require Tommy John surgery, shutting him down until the last week of July, 2006. His team was good during that time, but would also miss the playoffs all three years, and even if they hadn't, Wolf wouldn't have been able to pitch in any of them.
Finally, after the season when he turned 30 ended with a 5.56 ERA, the Phillies thanked him for his contributions, and made him a lone Wolf. Where might a pitcher find work having just started his fourth decade of life?
Not a month into free agency, as they often do, the lone Wolf found new territory far away from his previous home. Randy signed a 1-year, $7.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. This was a pack that had gone to the playoffs the previous year after some serious retooling, particularly in the pitching department. 36-year-old Aaron Sele and 40-year-old Greg Maddux had made serious impacts despite their AARP cards. Knowing that wasn't sustainable, the Dodgers' plan for Wolf was to inject some comparative youth into the rotation, try him out for one year, and leave the door open with a second-year option. He did okay to start out, with 6 of his first 11 Dodgers starts being Quality Starts, including a particularly good 7 innings of no-run 4-hit 11-strikeout stuff against the Cincinnati Reds. He finished May at 6-3 with a 3.41 ERA and 71 strikeouts. June wasn't as good, as he emerged at the end of the month with a 9-6 record and a 4.33 ERA after allowing at least 3 runs in each of his 6 starts. Then on July 3rd, after a particularly bad 3-inning 6-run outing, the Wolf began to hobble. His throwing shoulder was bothering him, and after electing to have surgery on it, his season was over. So was his time as a member of the Dodgers, who turned him loose that offseason. The Wolf found temporary shelter in a monastery as the Padres gave him a 1-year $5 million contract. In just his third start, against the Rockies, Randy was close to making that contract monumentally good. He had thrown 6 shutout, no-hit innings, which is generally not super noteworthy, but the San Diego Padres had never had a no-hitter in their history. Alas, it would stay that way, as person-who-dislikes-fun Brad Hawpe singled in the 7th, and Wolf was pulled after he finished the inning. It seemed to throw off his game as well, as after only allowing three runs through his first three starts combined for an ERA of 1.42, by mid-July, Randy had caused it to rise to 4.74. Pair that with a 6-10 record and a trend toward his worst career ERA+, and things weren't looking good. San Diego, who had already lost 60 games by that point, decided to save some money, and traded Wolf's $5 million to the Houston Astros for the league minimum of 26-year-old Chad Reineke. Apparently the Astros knew what they were doing, because, much like the constellation 9Lupus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lupus_(constellation\)), when Wolf joined the stars, he shined. In 12 starts, he went 6-2, lowered his ERA on the season to 4.30, and struck out 57. Houston, who was 8 games below .500 when they acquired him, got as close as 2 games out of the Wild Card spot before finishing the year 86-75, an admirable turnaround. The next season would provide intrigue into whether they could keep that up. They would have to do it without Randy Wolf, who was once again granted permission to the pastures of free agency. At 32 years old, was there any chance this old dog still had some new tricks?
Despite being named the 27th best free agent available by MLB Trade Rumors and being one of the catalysts for a rather successful team down the stretch, Wolf swam the rivers of free agency for a good three months before finally being offered a contract to come back to the Dodgers. Yet another 1-year, $5 million contract, but it was far better than being left to fend for himself in that harsh wilderness. Unlike the 2007 Dodgers he was familiar with, who would go on to miss the playoffs after Wolf injured himself, the 2009 Dodgers were coming off a run to the NLCS. A recent foreign signing that paid off in Hiroki Kuroda, a proven young arm in Chad Billingsley, and a 21-year-old wild card named Clayton Kershaw were all ready to anchor a starting rotation. Wolf was brought on for his experience, and maybe if he could pitch here and there that'd be nice too. Well, he did that and more. At the age of 32, Randy Wolf had his best season in seven years. His record of 11-7 was his best since the year he was an All-Star. His 3.23 ERA was his best since the year he was the Phillies' ace. His 1.101 WHIP was his lowest in his career. He started 34 games, the first time he'd ever hit that high a number in a single season. Same goes for his 214.1 innings pitched. While Clayton Kershaw doubtless had the better mechanics, clearly exhibited in his lower peripherals in almost every pitcher vs. hitter metric, people who didn't care about all that stathead mumbo-jumbo saw Randy Wolf return to the mantle of staff ace. To top it all off, the Dodgers offense was exemplary. The outfield had a collective OPS above .825, and only two regular starters, Russell Martin the catcher and Rafael Furcal the shortstop, put up an OPS+ below 100. All that, plus a great bullpen, added up to a 95-67 record, and their second straight NL West division crown. Their quick dispatch of the Cardinals in an NLDS sweep was kicked off by Game 1 starter Randy Wolf, who earned a no-decision that day. He showed up again as the starter of Game 4 of the NLCS played against his old team in Philadelphia. Game 4 would end with Jonathan Broxton allowing a walkoff two-run double to Jimmy Rollins, who was teammates with Randy for six years. The Dodgers lost Game 4, then the decisive Game 5, and ended up watching the Phillies lose the World Series to the Yankees. Randy Wolf, on the other hand, was set to hunt for a team in the wooded country of free agency another time. Would this hunt fare any better?
Randy Wolf had the good fortune of being among a particularly lean crop of free agents, and having just had a year where he could be argued as the staff ace of a 95-win team, his value was as high as it ever had been. MLB Trade Rumors, therefore, rated him as the 5th best free agent available. The four names ahead of him, Matt Holliday, John Lackey, Jason Bay, and Chone Figgins, show just how weak this class was. Perfect prey for a wolf to pounce upon to gain ground. Monetarily, of course. And that he did, signing a 3-year, $29.75 million dollar contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. This contract was roughly equivalent to double what he'd earned over the past three years. It pays to be aggressive when it matters, whether you are prowling for food in the forest or prowling for a contract in the MLB. While Randy Wolf was certainly still crafty, the Brewers were giving a three-year contract with seven zeroes on it to a pitcher not named Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan who would be 36 before it was over. Would the risk pay off? Well, old dogs can often still go in for the kill. In his first two years, Wolf went 26-22 in 67 starts. His 3.93 ERA and ERA+ of 101 was commendable, his total of 276 strikeouts was above average, and his 1839 batters faced were the most he'd ever endured over any two-year stretch of his career. Randy was even privy to some playoff action in 2011, when he allowed seven runs in a possible NLDS series-clincher against Arizona, but made up for it with a Quality Start and eventual Win in Game 4 of the NLCS. The Brewers won the series where he sucked, and lost the series where he was good. Wolf may have taken the wrong idea, because the next year he began sucking a lot more. By mid-August, he was 3-10 with a 5.69 ERA, but contrary to the previous experiment, Milwaukee was not doing well, and by this time was all but out of the playoff picture. On August 22, 2012, Randy Wolf was released by Milwaukee on what just so happened to be his 36th birthday. Told you his contract wouldn't end before then. A pity deal from the Baltimore Orioles led to two more starts and three more appearances, but didn't translate into an appearance on their playoff roster on account of another UCL tear that meant he would miss an entire year, this time not sandwiched between two seasons of play, but for the whole calendar year of 2013. Some might think that a 37-year-old coming off of his second Tommy John surgery would decide it was time to hang up his cleats and retire. Randy Wolf, not one to settle for easy meat, did not do that.
On Febraury 13th, 2014, after completing his rehab, Wolf signed a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners. Then he got released after refusing to sign a waiver. Long story. A couple weeks later, he signed another minor league contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite a 5-1 record over 6 AAA starts, the Snakes didn't want to keep him, and he was released again. That same day, he was picked up by the Marlins on another minor league contract. One month and 25.2 MLB innings of 5.26 ERA ball and a 1-3 record later, he was released again, only to be scooped up five days later on another minor league contract with the Baltimore Orioles. Four lackluster weeks of triple-A baseball later, Wolf was released again only for two weeks to pass before he was offered another minor league contract from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. ARE YOU STILL WITH ME?!? Good. The Angels kept him on their AAA squad for the remainder of the year. His previous season, he'd gone 6-2 with a 4.57 ERA in 19 triple-A games spread across three different organizations, and that sluggish performance in Miami was the only time he put on an MLB jersey during the regular season. Remember kids, someday signing a waiver might mean you don’t have to move house four times in one year. Anyway, the next spring training, Wolf signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays OH NO IT'S HAPPENING AGAIN. Except this time, the Blue Jays kept him on their triple-A squad for four months of the regular season. He went 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA in 23 starts. The Detroit Tigers saw that, said "what's the worst that could happen?" and in mid-August, traded their up-and-coming prospect Cash Considerations for Randy Wolf. He thanked them by going 0-5 in 7 starts, allowing 24 earned runs in 34.2 innings for a 6.23 ERA, and getting released that offseason. At long last, the Wolf saw that his final days were upon him, and signed a one-day contract with the Phillies to retire as a member of his original Wolf Pack. Is this the part where he cries to the blue corn moon?
To say Randy Wolf's career was one-of-a-kind would be a stretch. There are plenty of other lefties that have gone on to have similar careers, Floyd Bannister for one. Did Randy deserve to be on the ballot? That's a question that doesn't have an easy answer. Sure, he pitched for a long time, won more games than he lost, and was relatively good over a fairly lengthy stretch. He even places 116th on the all-time strikeouts list with 1814, right ahead of Hall-of-Famer and 350-game winner Pud Galvin. Heck, Ron Darling had similar stats across the board, and he even showed up on a ballot. And yet, to me there's just something about him that just says "he didn't belong there." Perhaps it's the fact that he was only the definitive staff ace on one team that only won 80 games. Perhaps it's the fact he only had four full seasons with an ERA below 4.00. It might even be the fact that after he came back despite the odds, he didn't do very well, and that's poisoning my thoughts on him. I don't know. I do know he wasn't on the ballot, and that's that. [Put another stupid wolf thing here]
Randy Wolf would visit the Hall of Fame in a Phillies cap for his 69-60 record, 971 strikeouts, and one All-Star selection with the club. While there he would let out a quiet but distinct howl when passing by Greg "Mad Dog" Maddux's plaque.
RIP Tommy Lasorda
#1: Randy Choate
#2: Kevin Gregg
#3: Dan Uggla
#4: Josh Hamilton
#5: Delmon Young
#6: Willie Bloomquist
#7: Grady Sizemore
#8: Kevin Correia
#9: David DeJesus
#10: Rafael Betancourt
#11: Clint Barmes
#12: Adam LaRoche
#13: Grant Balfour
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Better Know the Ones Left Off the Ballot #3: Dan Uggla
And we're back. 2 down, 37 (jeez) to go. To help with that, and to celebrate the symposium, I'm considering posting two of these tomorrow.
Randy Choate and
Kevin Gregg have been given their due, now onto our next vict- person of interest.
Dan Uggla
Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor: 35 Career bWAR (10 years): 18.2 Stats: .241/.336/.447, 107 OPS+, 1149 H, 235 HR, 491 XBH, 706 RBI, 759 R League Leading Stats: Walks (94, 2012), Errors committed as 2B 2x (18, 2010 | 15, 2011) Awards: All-Star 3x (2006, 2008, 2012), Silver Slugger (2010), 2006 June NL Rookie of the Month, 2011 August NL Player of the Month Teams Played For: Marlins (2006-10), Braves (2011-14), Giants (2014), Nationals (2015)
Daniel Cooley Uggla. An unusual name for an unusual player. His career was simultaneously totally ignorable and definitely abnormal. As a result, his name couldn't be more appropriate. Daniel is as run-of-the-mill a man's name as you can get, while Uggla is a quite uncommon Swedish noble family name, meaning "owl." Bet if you met a guy named Timmy Penguin you wouldn't forget that moniker anytime soon. But just how uncommon was his career? Well, only 16 second basemen have over 200 career home runs. Some Hall-of-Famers got there just by playing for a long time, like Joe Morgan, Roberto Alomar, and Craig Biggio. Hall members with a bit of pop like Ryne Sandberg and Bobby Doerr got there by consistently putting up dingers. Same is true of non-Hall members like Jeff Kent and Robby Cano. And then, in 12th place on the all-time leaderboard, above 15 people with plaques, there's Owlboy. How did he get there?
Following an impressive career at the University of Memphis, the Arizona Diamondbacks drafted Dan Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft. His next three years would be spent bouncing between A and A+, going from 5 homers and a .608 OPS in his first full season to 23 homers and a .859 OPS in his second. Birdman finally put it all together in 2004 where he was slashing .336/.422/.600 after 37 games in A+, and got promoted to AA, where he cooled off to finish the year with an OPS of .774 across both leagues. In 2005, his first full season in AA, he'd be much more productive, as he socked 21 dingers and slashed .297/.378/.502. This caused buzz, and led some to believe he might be a top 10 Dbacks prospect despite his 25 years of age. That December was the Rule 5 Draft, where teams are allowed to select any minor league player with more than 4 years experience not on a Major League team's 40-man roster. The Diamondbacks made the mistake of leaving Uggla exposed after his 4th year in the minors, and with the 8th pick, the Florida Marlins snatched him up like he was a mouse in the dead of night. Good news for Uggla: the team had to keep him on their 25-man roster for the entire year or he'd go back to Arizona. Bad news: This was the Florida Marlins in the midst of a market correction.
For those of you familiar, the 2005 offseason was not a good time to be a Marlins fan. Before Derek Jeter retired and moved to Florida, the owner of the baseball team bearing the state's name was a man by the name of Jeffrey Loria. Well, I say "man," but "selfish hobgoblin" would probably be more accurate. The end of the 2005 season saw his team tragically go from 78-67 and a wild card spot to 83-79 and out of the playoffs. Upon the conclusion of that season, Loria made his fiendishly egocentric intentions clear: he wanted a new stadium. For as long as the Marlins had existed, they had shared a stadium with the Miami Dolphins. Loria didn't like sharing, so he gave a mandate to the local government: use tax dollars to build my stadium, or next year, the team will suck. If there was no stadium deal, he would begin to eviscerate the team's payroll, trading big names for no-names. In case you didn't know, stadiums are expensive, and the city didn't have a spare $150 million lying around, so they said no. Loria kept his promise. Carlos Delgado, one year removed from signing the largest contract in team history and recent top-5 MVP vote getter, was shipped to the Mets for pennies on the dollar. Starting catcher Paul Lo Duca joined him shortly thereafter. Stalwart rotation arm Josh Beckett and dependable third baseman Mike Lowell shipped off to Boston. Juan Pierre was dealt to the Cubs. Luis Castillo got a ticket to Minnesota. Nine players who all contributed to the team that was in a playoff spot within twenty games of the season's end were effectively shown the door when they didn't receive arbitration offers. When asked if these actions constituted a fire sale, Loria said he preferred to think of it as a "market correction." He was wrong. This was not a valuation adjustment of his baseball team. This was a billionaire throwing a fit because the city wouldn't give him his own sandbox where he could play with his toys. And so, if one toddler couldn't play where he wanted, nobody got to play at all. When the flames died down, the total payroll for Loria's team's entire roster was $21 million. That was less money than Alex Rodriguez would be making that year by himself. Starting pitchers Dontrelle Willis and Brian Moehler were the only two Marlins whose paychecks required a second comma. The only meaningful names left on the team were Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Florida's 2006 Opening Day lineup had 6 players who had played in 83 MLB games combined prior to that day. No, not their Opening Day roster, their Opening Day lineup. And who do you think might be starting at second base, batting sixth? Why, it's a little 26-year-old Rule 5 draft pick with a funny looking last name.
Uggla's MLB debut saw him go 0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout. I mean, can you really say you expect more from a guy who just got supplanted from AA? His first hit came in the next game, and his first home run came in game number eight against Dewon Brazelton. Sidenote, Dan Uggla no longer has the funniest name in this post. Great Horned Daniel did all right for himself after that slow start, batting .305/.362/.467 after the first month and a half of the season. Problem was, everyone else on the team did all wrong for themselves. The Marlins were 11-31. And really, given what they were working with, can you blame them? The next month after that start, though, saw Uggla wake himself and the rest of the team up. Florida went 19-6 in their next 25 games, and Uggla contributed massively over that span, batting .327/.374/.643 with 7 homers, 22 RBIs, and 20 runs. Despite missing 8 games following that run, given that hitting line, it shouldn't surprise anyone that he was voted June's NL Rookie of the Month. Better yet, his excellent hitting at a position where Chase Utley was considered a power bat got our owly friend selected to the All-Star game as a reserve. Uggla didn't end up playing in the game, and cooled off a bit after that, but didn't ever go entirely cold. In fact, in a game on September 11 against the Mets, he had 5 hits, one home run, and saw his team win 16-5. That win brought the Marlins to a record of 73-71. They had successfully gone from 20 games under .500 to a winning record in a single season, the first MLB team to ever accomplish such a feat. Sadly, Florida would once again have a season-ending slump, losing 13 of their last 18 in an eerily similar streak to 2005. However, the 78-84 record where they ended the season had so much more poured into it than the final result could ever tell. Our nocturnal feathered Dan did more than his share, hitting .282/.339/.480 with 27 home runs and 90 RBIs on the year. Uggla deservedly received 6 first-place votes for NL Rookie of the Year, ultimately losing to his teammate Hanley Ramirez, and finishing ahead of his other teammates Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez, and Josh Willingham. Six players from a single team all getting votes for Rookie of the Year is almost certainly never going to happen again, so congrats to Hootie and the Swordfish for making history. All the success aside, questions arose about how effective he'd be in the long-term. Could Uggla keep it up, or had the clock struck midnight on this Rule 5 pick's Cinderowla story? Here's a hint: even if the clock's struck midnight, owls are nocturnal.
The next four years, Uggla retained the Marlins' starting second base position, and showed the first season was far from a fluke. 27 homers, the most he'd ever hit in a season up to that point, turned out to be the lowest number he'd have in Florida. 2007 through 2009 saw Uggla sock 31, 32, and 31 dingers. The lowest OPS he'd have over that span was .805, and his lowest RBI total was 88. Both came in 2007, when he was the number 2 hitter, but a move down the lineup to number 5 the next year saw him flourish. He was so good in 2008, he got another trip to the All-Star Game! And he actually played in this one! We don't have to talk about how he did, do we? Can we ignore the record he set with three errors in that game and the three strikeouts and GIDP he had at the plate? Cool thanks moving on. As for his time in Florida, 2010 was definitely the peak for Dan for Owl Seasons (Shakespeare pun, might be reaching). While he may not have been voted to the All-Star game, he more than made up for it, slashing .287/.369/.508, with 105 RBIs, and a 131 OPS+. All of those stats were career highs. Not satisfied with only five of those happening that year, he tacked on one more: 33 home runs. That number did several things for him. It put him atop the Marlins' career home run leaderboard with 154. It made him the first second baseman in Major League history to hit 30 or more home runs in four straight seasons. It notched him that year's Silver Slugger. It got him onto more than a couple NL MVP ballots. What it also did, though, was make him valuable. He rejected a 4-year, $48-million extension from the Marlins, who had just finished the season 80-82, out of playoff contention for the seventh straight year. Despite his fantastic batting numbers, Owld Dang Syne had never played in a playoff game. Perhaps that was part of his motivation for rejecting the largest contract the Marlins had ever offered to a second baseman. And so, the offseason after his best season in the Majors, Dan Uggla was traded to the Atlanta Braves for utility player Omar Infante and left-handed reliever Mike Dunn. In defiance of his avian peers, that winter saw this Owl fly north.
Once Uggla was perched upon the position of second base in Atlanta, that necessitated a move for Martin Prado, an All-Star the previous year who finished above Uggla in MVP voting. An interesting choice, certainly, but Prado had shown range at other defensive positions that Uggla hadn't. The thing was, even then, Uggla wasn't exactly the best fielder at second either. In 2010, the same year he set a bunch of career bests at the plate, Owlfred Dannyworth led the league in Errors with 18. And instead of regularly great shortstop Hanley Ramirez, this year he'd be paired with 34-year-old Alex Gonzalez. How did that turn out? Could've been better. Uggla did achieve a new high for home runs with 36, incidentally making him the only second baseman to hit 30 home runs in five straight seasons. Everything else, not so much. A season after Uggla's average, on-base, and slugging had all reached new career highs, all of them hit new career lows, with .233/.311/.453. Not awful, but definitely not what was expected of him at this point. That was bolstered by a fantastic August, where he hit .340/.405/.670 with 10 home runs en route to his second NL Player of the Month award. Thing is, he led the league in errors again and had a career low -1.2 dWAR. And he was turning 32 next season. Did I mention the Braves had just signed him for 5 years and $62 million? Because... uh oh. Things began to look up the next year, as the first half saw Owl Pacino garner some newfound fielding skills, and his hitting seemed to be improving, peaking at .276/.384/.492 in early June. He earned his third trip to the All-Star game, which didn't go nearly as bad as his last outing. He actually started the game this time! Nice going Dan! Good sign of things to come! Right? Well, offensively, 2012 turned out to be one of Uggla's worst seasons yet. He struggled late into the season, finishing at .220/.348/.384. While those are new career lows in average and slugging, the on-base is helped by a league-leading 94 walks. This marked the first time Uggla finished a season with fewer than 20 home runs (19), an OPS+ below 100 (98), and fewer than 250 total bases (201). There was one good thing that happened to Pasta Owl Dan-te: his team reached the playoffs! His Braves were a wild card team! And it was 2012! And the infield fly rule existed! Oh... wait... let's move on. The rest of his time in Atlanta went about as well as that playoff run did. The next year, his batting average spent a total of about three weeks above the Mendoza line. Even with 22 home runs that's just not okay. Combine that with a return to normalcy in the field, two more career low years for on-base and slugging, and a tied career high strikeout total at 171, and you have what we call a bad season. How's that contract looking now? Two more years? Sounds great! After the first couple months of 2014 saw Uggla's numbers headed for the fourth straight year of new career worsts in every hitting category, the Braves began to explore other options at second base. When Tommy La Stella began showing promise in the middle of the summer, Atlanta decided to cut their losses, and let the Owl fly free on July 18th. Dan Uggla was now 34 years old, coming off a steady decline in production that showed no signs of slowing, and was named Dan Uggla. How would he get out of this one?
While there may have been a significant downturn in I'm-running-out-of-owl-puns's production as of late, he still played second base okay. One team that needed someone who could do that in late July of 2014 was the San Francisco Giants. After the great Marco Scutaro went down with an injury early in the year, band-aids like Ehire Adrianza and Brandon Hicks just hadn't been cutting it. Rookie Joe Panik had come up in the last month, but his bat didn't look amazing. And so, at the time, it made sense for them to pick up someone like Uggla, with a proven track record and history of a nice bat as a 2B. And so, on July 21, the Nocturnal Flying Animal (I'm running on fumes here) signed a minor league deal, and three days later, joined the Giants dugout. After going 0-for-12 with one walk at the plate and committing two errors in the field in his next four games, The Giants realized they'd made a mistake, and cut [insert owl joke here] from the roster. They stuck with Panik for the rest of the year, and whataya know they won the World Series, leading to half the comments on this post reading simply "World Series Champion Dan Uggla." Congrats on the ring man! Er, owl! (Help.) His last year of Major League play was spent as a Washington Nationowl, (please tell me we're almost done) where he served primarily as a pinch-hitter and backup second baseman behind Danny Espinosa. He played in only 67 games, batted .183/.298/.300, and said his farewell that offseason at the age of 36. His last at-bat, on October 3rd, was a home run. The game was against the New York Mets, and happened to be the same game where Max Scherzer tossed a 17-strikeout 0-walk no-hitter. And frankly, if that's not the best way for this Owl to fly the coop, I don't know what is.
Dan Uggla's career really is unique. Maybe if Brian Dozier sticks around he could contest that fact, but other than him, there isn't really anyone. His journey to the MLB was unusual, his time there was unusual, the way he got his World Series ring was unusual, and in case you can't tell I've run out of owl puns so I'm pretty much cooked. The man had a weird career, what else can I say. His place on the ballot would have been similar to that of Adam Dunn's, but given that he was only unusual and not a freak outlier, I can see why they left him off. Oh, and in case it wasn't clear, Giancarlo Stanton broke his Marlins home run record, though he's the only second baseman save Rogers Hornsby to lead a franchise in homers for that long in the history of Major League Baseb-owl (okay that was truly awful I really need to stop).
Dan Uggla would visit the Hall of Fame in a Marlins cap for his two All-Star selections, 154 home runs, and 15.7 bWAR with them. I would make an owl pun here but as previously mentioned I don't have any more.
submitted by liljakeyplzandthnx to baseball [link] [comments]
[1.1 Update] Complete List of Verified Perks (Working / Not Working / Partially Working) [WIP]
Update: All items and perks testing completed. Still updating based on feedback as it comes in. I'll update the text below soon.
Update: Added a tab for bonuses per skill level and attribute level
Update: Tested the non functioning (Partially or Not Working) perks/items for the 1.11 hotfix. Several changes noted in the change log. I think I'll reserve testing the whole list for more significant updates, but definitely looking out for people posting/messaging about things they found that are not working/working. Already got 1 perk not working that was before.
Up to date Perks and Items and Skill Levels Testing can be found here: Link to Spreadsheet
Hope you guys find this helpful!
Reddit list last updated: 1/26/2021
Body - Athletics
- Regeneration: "Health slowly regenerates during combat."
- Working
- With this perk alone, regen starts only below 60% and heals up to 60%.
- Invincible: "Increases max health by 10%."
- Working
- Only applies to base HP. 10% of base HP at lvl 50 = 43 HP.
- Pack Mule: "Increases carrying capacity by 60."
- Divided Attention: "Allows you to reload weapons while sprinting, sliding, and vaulting."
- Epimorphosis: "Health regenerates up to 70% of max Health outside of combat."
- True Grit: "Increases max stamina by 10%."
- Working
- Only applies to base stamina. 10% of base stamina at lvl 50 = 15 stamina.
- Soft on your feet: "Reduces fall damage by 5%."
- Gladiator: "Reduces the amount of Stamina consumed when blocking melee attacks by 20%."
- Steel and Chrome: "Increases melee damage by 10%."
- Multitasker: "Allows you to shoot while sprinting, sliding, and vaulting."
- Working
- Aiming while vaulting doesn't use any sights, but works for firing.
- Like a Butterfly: "Dodging does not drain Stamina."
- Stronger Together: "Increases damage you deal while carrying a body."
- Working
- Still requires Trasporter perk to fire shots, and the increase is about 2x
- Cardio Cure: "Health regenerates 25% faster as you move."
- Overworking
- Regeneration bonus active at all times. Also confirmed moving/still is the same
- Transporter: "Allows you to shoot with Pistols and Revolvers or sprint while carrying a body."
- Human Shield: "Increases armor by 20% when grappling an enemy."
- Marathoner: "Sprinting does not drain Stamina."
- Dog of War: "Increases Health regen in combat by 15%"
- Working
- Note: Saving all health regen tests for last. They're the most annoying
- Wolverine: "Health regen activates 50% faster during combat."
- Working
- 90% faster activation might not be right, but it's definitely faster. Hard to tell when this counter officially starts when in combat.
- Steel Shell: "Increases armor by 10%."
- The Rock: "Enemies cannot knock you down."
- Working
- Tested using cars again. You really have to be just on the edge to avoid death.
- Indestructible: "Reduces all damage by 10%."
- Hard Motherfucker: "When entering combat, Armor and Resistances increase by 10% for 10 sec. +1% per level."
- Not Working
- This perk only works the first save instance where you learn it. Reloading the save will disable the perk no matter how many points you put into it.
Body - Annihilation
- Speed Demon: "You deal more damage the faster you're moving."
- Working
- Only applies to Shotguns and LMGs. Walking was around 1.5x, Running 2x, Speed glitches 4x+
- Manic: "When entering combat, your movement speed increases by 20% for 10 sec."
- Working
- Only applies to Shotguns and LMGs.
- Burn Baby Burn: "Doubles the duration of Burn"
- Working
- Works for Quickhacks (Overheat) and burn applied with other weapons than SG/LMG
- Mongoose: "Increases Evasion by 25% while reloading."
- Not Working
- All evasion related stats not working.
- Momentum Shift: "Defeating an enemy increases movement speed by 10% for 10 sec."
- Working
- Can only see difference on SG/LMG kills.
- Massacre: "Increases Crit Damage with Shotguns and Light Machine Guns by 15%"
- Pump it, Louder!: "Reduces recoil of Shotguns and Light Machine Guns by 10%."
- Not Working
- Tested only using LMGs and the recoil pattern on fully automatic firing.
- Hail of Bullets: "Shotguns and Light Machine Guns deal 3% more damage."
- Working
- Damage increase doesn't show on weapon, but shows in final damage numbers on enemies
- In Your Face: "Reduces reload time of Shotguns and Light Machine Guns by 20%."
- Bloodbath: "Dismembering enemies reduces weapon recoil by 50% for 6 sec."
- Not Working
- May not be tested properly. I can only dismember consistently with a SG, and switched to LMG to see recoil. That could mess with the buff, not sure.
- Bulldozer: "Increases Crit Chance with Shotguns and Light Machine Guns by 10%."
- Bloodrush: "Increases movement speed in combat by 5% while carrying a Shotgun or Light Machine Gun."
- Dead Center: "Increases damage to torsos by 10%."
- Working
- Only applies to Shotguns and LMGs
- Heavy Lead: "Shotguns and Light Machine Guns knock back enemies with more force."
- Partially Working
- Retested in 1.1.. I'm actually not sure anymore. Hard to eyeball distance so marking as partially
- Skeet Shooter: "Deal 15% more damage to moving targets."
- Working
- Only applies to Shotguns and LMGs
- Unstoppable: "Dismembering an enemy increases fire rate by 10% for 8 sec. Stacks up to 3 times."
- Working
- Only applies to Shotguns and LMGs
- Biathlete: "Weapon spread does not increase while moving."
- Not Working
- Several opinions saying spread does not change, with or without the perk.
- Poppin' Off: "Shotguns have 25% higher chance of dismembering enemies."
- Not Working
- Used a carnage again, but I do have trouble dismembering consistently. The smart shotgun shreds too much to use for comparison, so if anyone has any ideas please message me on reddit with them.
- Hit The Deck: "Increases damage to staggered and knocked-down enemies by 10%."
- Not Working
- Only tested on Knocked Down enemies. Staggering with Carnage barely leaves any time to fire again
Body - Street Brawler
- Thrash: "Strong Attacks with Blunt Weapons reduce the target's Armor by 30% for 10 sec."
- Working
- Enemies don't have armor. What this does very accurately though is increase damage against these enmies by 30%
- Frenzy: "Defeating an enemy increases damage with Blunt Weapons by 100% for 10 sec."
- Biding Time: "Blocking attacks with a Blunt Weapon restores 5% Health."
- Working
- Countering does not count as a block in this case.
- Human Fortress: "Reduces the Stamina cost of blocking attacks by 50% while using a Blunt Weapon."
- Working
- Stun duration is short and can be seen with a teal icon above their head and a timer ticking down.
- Opportune Strike: "Increases damage with Blunt Weapons against enemies affected by Stun by 50%."
- Payback: "Increases damage with Blunt Weapons by 1% for every 1% of missing Health"
- Working
- Working, but I don't know how low you can take this. It worked while I was around 40-50% HP
- Juggernaut: "Increases Armor by 15% while blocking with a Blunt Weapon."
- Flurry: "Increases damage from combo attacks with Blunt Weapons by 30%."
- Crushing Blows: "Increases damage from Strong Attacks with Blunt Weapons by 30%."
- Rush: "Successful attacks with Blunt Weapons regenerate 3% Health over 2 Sec."
- Dazed: "All attacks with Blunt Weapons have a 15% chance to Stun."
- Efficient Blows: "Reduces the Stamina cost of all attacks with Blunt Weapons by 25%."
- Guerrilla: "Increases Crit Damage for 10 sec. after entering combat. +2% per level."
- Not Working
- This perk only works the first save instance where you learn it. Reloading the save will disable the perk no matter how many points you put into it.
- Relentless: "Successful attacks with Blunt Weapons against enemies affected by Stun restore 20% Stamina."
- Reinvigorate: "Defeating an enemy by performing a Strong Attack with a Blunt Weapon restores 10% Stamina."
- Breathing Space: "Increases Stamina regen while blocking with Blunt Weapons by 50%"
- Unshakeable: "Successful attacks with Blunt Weapons against enemies affected by Stun restore 5% Health and 5% Stamina."
Reflexes - Assault
- Bulletjock: "Increases damage with rifles by 3%."
- Eagle Eye: "Reduces time to aim down sight with Rifles and Submachine Guns by 10%."
- Covering Killshot: "Increases Crit Chance with Rifles by 10% when firing from behind cover."
- Working
- Note: Behind cover without aiming down sights does not count. I had to aim for the crit chance to work.
- Too Close For Comfort: "Quick melee attacks with Rifles deal 50% more damage."
- Bullseye: "Increases Rifle and Sumachine Gun damage while aiming by 10%"
- Executioner: "Deal 25% more damage with Rifles and Submachine Guns to enemies whose Health is above 50%."
- Duck Hunter: "Increases Rifle and Submachine Gun damage to moving enemies by 10%"
- Shoot, Reload, Repeat: "Defeating an enemy with a Rifle or Submachine Gun reduces reload time by 20% for 5 seconds."
- Nerves of Steel: "Increases headshot damage with Sniper Rifles and Rrecision Rifles by 20%."
- Working
- Tested again as working. Sniper rifles have high multipliers by default so it's hard to tell. Used the precision rifle and it was more noticeable
- Feel the Flow: "Reduces reload time for Assault Rifles and Submachine Guns by 10%."
- Trench Warfare: "Increases Rifle and Submachine Gun damage by 5% when firing from behind cover."
- Hunter's Hands: "Reduces recoil with Rifles and Submachine Guns by 20% when firing from behind cover."
- Partially Working
- Tested with Copperhead. Vertical recoil is lower, but not by much... definitely not 40% at level 2
- Named Bullets: "Increases Crit Damage with Rifles and Submachine Guns by 35%."
- Skull Skipper: "Each headshot reduces recoil with Rifles and Submachine Guns by 5% for 10 sec. Stacks up to 5 times."
- Working
- Retested and it seems to work.
- Bunker: "Increases Armor and Resistances by 15% when shooting with Rifles and Submachine Guns from behind cover."
- Recoil Wrangler: "Reduces recoil with Rifles and Submachine Guns by 10%."
- In Perspective: "Bullets fired from Rifles and Submachine Guns ricochet an additional 2 time(s)."
- Long Shot: "Rifle and Submachine Gun damage increases the farther you are located from enemies."
- Working
- 23.6 distance for 100% additional weapon damage. Distance can be measured with the Grandstead scope. It's shown on the top right corner of the rectangle in the sight
- Savage Stoic: "Increases damage with Rifles and Submachine Guns by 35% when standing still."
- Punisher: "After defeating an enemy with a Rifle or Submachine Gun, weapon sway is nullified and weapon spread does not increase for 10 sec. +0.2 sec. per Perk level."
Reflexes - Handguns
- Gunslinger: "Reduces reload time for Pistols and Revolvers by 10%."
- High Noon: "Increases Crit Chance with Pistols and Revolvers by 4%."
- Rio Bravo: "Increases headshot damage multiplier with Pistols and Revolvers by 10%."
- Desperado: "Increases damage with Pistols and Revolvers by 3%."
- On the Fly: "Reduces draw/holster time for Pistols and Revolvers by 25%."
- Long Shot Drop Pop: "Increases damage with Pistols and Revolvers to enemies 5+ meters away by 15%."
- O.K. Corral: "Deal 50% more damage with Pistols and Revolvers to enemies whose Health is below 25%."
- Steady Hand: "Reduces Pistol and Revolver recoil by 30%."
- Working
- Previously not working. Used a Lexington and the recoil firing the whole clip did look lower.
- Vanishing Point: "Evasion increases by 25% for 6 sec. after performing a dodge with a Pistol or Revolver equipped."
- From Head to Toe: "Increases damage to limbs with Pistols and Revolvers by 7%."
- A Fistful of Eurodollars: "Increases Crit Damage with Pistols and Revolvers by 10%."
- Acrobat: "You can now perform dodges while aiming a Pistol or Revolver."
- Working
- Fixed. Note that most people are probably wearing Kerenzikov, which actually enables this anyways
- Grand Finale: "The last round in a Pistol or Revolver clip deals double damage."
- Attritional Fire: "Firing consecutive shots with a Pistol or Revolver at the same target increases damage by 10%."
- Not Working
- Previously working, but I can't remember how solid the test in the past was on this one.
- Wild West: "Removes the damage penalty from Pistols and Revolvers when shooting from a distance."
- Westworld: "Increases Crit Chance for Pistols and Revolvers by 10% if fully modded."
- Working
- Fully modded means every slot is filled, regardless of rarity or number of slots
- Snowball Effect: "After defeating an enemy, fire rate for Pistols and Revolvers increases by 5% for 6 sec. Stacks up to 5 times."
- Not Working
- Tested again with Lexington, can't see any difference at max stacks
- Lead Sponge: "Enables you to shoot with Pistols and Revolvers while dodging."
- Working
- You can already do this with Kerenzikov
- Brainpower: "After a successful headshot with a Pistol or Revolver, Crit Chance increases by 25% for 5 sec."
- The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly: "After a successful Crit Hit with a Pistol or Revolver, damage and Armor increase by 30% for 5 seconds. +1% per Perk level."
- Not Working
- This perk only works the first save instance where you learn it. Reloading the save will disable the perk no matter how many points you put into it.
Reflexes - Blades
- Sting Like a Bee: "Increases attack speed with Blades by 10%."
- Working
- Only works if weapon is not at attack speed cap. See appendix for more info.
- Roaring Waters: "Strong Attacks with Blades deal 30% more damage."
- Crimson Dance: "Combos with Blades have a 15% chance to apply Bleeding."
- Slow and Steady: "Armor is increased by 15% while moving."
- Working
- Only applies when holding a blade. Also do not have to be moving.
- Flight of the Sparrow: "Reduces the Stamina cost of all attack with Blades by 30%"
- Offensive Defense: "Defensive Attacks with Blades deal 200% more damage."
- Shifting Sands: "Dodging recovers 15% Stamina."
- Partially Working
- Hidden cooldown applied for stamina recovery. Dodging continuously, 1 in 3 recovered stamina.
- Stuck Pig: "Increases Bleeding duration by 3 sec."
- Working
- Only extends Bleeds applied by Blades
- Blessed Blade: "Increases Crit Chance with Blades by 20%."
- Unbroken Spirit: "Successful Counterattacks with Blades restore 25% Health and Stamina."
- Working
- Previously didn't work for me. Retested, working now
- Bloodlust: "While wielding a Blade, recovers 7% Health when applying Bleeding to an enemy or hitting an enemy affected by Bleeding."
- Partially Working
- Only healed on first hit on a bleeding enemy. All other cases did not heal.
- Float Like a Butterfly: "Dodging increases damage with Blades by 35% for 5 sec."
- Judge, Jury, and Executioner: "Increases damage with Blades by 50% against enemies with max Health."
- Fiery Blast: "Increases damage with Blades by 1% for every 1% of Health the enemy is missing."
- Working
- Not 100% sure, but it felt like there was a cap in bonus damage. My damage went up to double.
- Crimson Tide: "Bleeding applied with Blades can stack 3 times."
- Working
- Stacking = applied at the same time, not extending the time.
- Deathbolt: "While wielding a Blade, defeating an enemy restores 20% Health and increases movement speed by 30% for 5 sec."
- Dragon Strike: "Increases Crit Damage with Blades by 25%. +1% per Perk level."
- Not Working
- This perk only works the first save instance where you learn it. Reloading the save will disable the perk no matter how many points you put into it.
Intelligence - Breach Protocol
- Big Sleep: "Unlocks the Big Sleep daemon, which disables all cameras in the network for 3 min."
- Mass Vulnerability: "Unlocks the Mass Vulnerability daemon, which reduces the Physical Resistance for all enemies in the network by 30% for 3 min."
- Working
- Retested for 1.1 and it is 100% working. Physical resistance doens't appear to show in the "Weaknesses" section when you scan enemies
- Almost In!: "Increases the breach time for Breach Protocol by 20%."
- Advanced Datamine: "Upgrades the Datamine daemon, increasing the amount of eurodollars acquired from Access Points by 50%."
- Mass Vulnerability: Resistances: "Upgrades the Mass Vulnerability daemon, reducing all Resistances for enemies in the network by 30%."
- Working
- Note that this Daemon isn't an option without Mass Vulnerability.
- Extended Network Interface: "Automatically highlights nearby Access Points."
- Working
- Highlighted in blue when scanning the environment
- Datamine Mastermind: "Upgrades the Datamine daemon, increasing the amount of components acquired from Access Points by 50%."
- Working
- The amount gained is different. Some more than 100%, and no extra legendary components
- Turret Shutdown: "Unlocks the Turret Shutdown daemon, which disables security turrets in the network for 3 min."
- Total Recall: "The ICEpick daemon reduces all quickhack costs by an additional 1 RAM unit(s)."
- Turret Tamer: "Unlocks the Turret Tamer daemon, which sets the status of every turret in the network to friendly for 3 min."
- Datamine Virtuoso: "Upgrades the Datamine daemon, increasing the chance to acquire a quickhack from Access Points by 50%."
- Working
- Not really easy to test, but over time with this maxed I was almost always getting an upgraded quickhack from access points
- Cloud Cache: "Completing a Breach Protocol reduces the RAM cost of your next quickhack by 1 time(s) the number of daemons uploaded."
- Efficiency: "Uploading 3 or more daemons in the same Breach Protocol increases cyberdeck RAM recovery rate by 3 unit(s) per 60 sec. Lasts 5 min."
- Mass Vulnerability: Quickhacks: "Upgrades the Mass Vulnerability daemon, causing enemies in the network to also take 30% more damage from quickhacks."
- Totaler Recall: "The ICEpick daemon reduces all quickhack costs by an additional 1 RAM unit(s)."
- Head Start: "Automatically uploads the first daemon in the list at the start of Breach Protocol."
- Hackathon: "Uploading 3 or more daemons in the same Breach Protocol shortens quickhack cooldowns by 33% for 5 min."
- Buffer Optimization: "Increases the duration of daemon effects by 100%."
- Compression: "Reduces the lengths of the sequences required to upload daemons by 1. Cannot be reduced below 2."
- Transmigration: "Increases the breach time of Breach Protocol by 50%. +5% per Perk level."
Intelligence - Quickhacking
- Bloodware: "Quickhacks deal 10% more damage."
- Working
- Damage increase seems lower than described. Suspected lower base damage not visible to players for Quickhacks
- Biosynergy: "Allows RAM to recover during combat. Recover 4 RAM unit(s) every 60 sec."
- Forget-me-not: "Eliminating a target affected by a quickhack instantly recovers 1 RAM unit(s)."
- Hacker's Manual: "Unlocks Crafting Specs for Uncommon quickhacks."
- I Spy: "Reveals an enemy netrunner when they're attempting to hack you."
- Weak Link: "Reduces the required cyberdeck RAM for quickhacks used on devices by 1 unit(s)."
- Working
- Can't go below 1 RAM Cost
- Daisy Chain: "Eliminating a target affected by a quickhack reduces the existing cooldowns for all other active quickhacks by 10%."
- Overworking
- Still reduces CD to and not by the described percent
- Signal Support: "Increases quickhack duration by 25%."
- Working
- Don't see a description change of duration on Ultimate quickhacks
- Subliminal Message: "Quickhacks deal 50% more damage to unaware targets."
- Working
- 50% and 100% at level 2 are not applied on the final damage number, it's applied on a smaller base damage.
- Diffusion: "Quickhack spread distance is increased by 2 times."
- Working
- Can only confirm the distance is increased, but not that it's actually 2x
- Mnemonic: "Reduces the cost of quickhacks used against an enemy already affected by a quickhack by 2 RAM units."
- School of Hard Hacks: "Unlocks Crafting Specs for Rare quickhacks."
- Plague: "Quickhacks that spread can jump to 1 additional targets."
- Hacker Overlord: "Unlocks Crafting Specs for Epic quickhacks."
- Critical Error: "Quickhacks can now deal Crit Hits based on your Crit Chance and Crit Damage stats."
- Anamnesis: "Available cyberdeck RAM cannot drop below 2 unit(s)."
- Partially Working
- This works in a very different way than described. The description should read "Resets your RAM to 2/3/4 when you reach 0 RAM and have not initiated ANY recovery of RAM at all." The last part meaning you have to actually 0 out and if any recovery happens along the way, it does not work. Recovery can be stalled with opening your menu or spamming lower level quickhacks with low cost, or doing what I did: Found a perfect combination of quickhack costs to execute on a group of enemies to 0 out immediately.
- Bartmoss' Legacy: "Unlocks Crafting Specs for Legendary quickhacks."
- Optimization: "Reduces the cost of quickhacks by 1 RAM unit(s)."
- Master RAM Liberator: "Increase RAM recovery rate by 50%."
- Partially Working
- The 50% bonus is actually not working, but the 1% per level is working (I tested with 50 points into the perk which is what made it look like it was working)
Technical Abilities - Crafting
- Mechanic: "Gain more components when disassembling."
- Scrapper: "Junk items are automatically disassembled."
- True Craftsman: "Allows you to craft Rare items."
- Workshop: "Disassembling items grants a 5% chance to gain a free component of the same quality as the disassembled item."
- Innovation: "Consumables are 25% more effective."
- Working
- Accurate translation: Consumables that provide timed buffs last 25% longer.
- Sapper: "Grenades deal 10% more damage."
- Not Working
- Not retesting this. I've done this so many times and even if it does work the damage range on grenades is too wide to tell
- 200% Efficiency: "Crafted clothes gain 2.5% more armor."
- Not Working
- Still not working. Tested on hats that have consistent armor
- Field Technician: "Crafted weapons deals 2.5% more damage."
- Partially Working
- Still not working on Melee wapons. The increase in damage I saw on Katana was more like 1% at max perk leve
- Grease Monkey: "Allows you to craft Epic items."
- Efficient Upgrades: "Grants a 10% chance to upgrade an item for free."
- Ex Nihilo: "Grants a 20% chance to craft an item for free."
- Let there be light!: "Reduces the component cost of upgrading items by 10%"
- Cost Optimization: "Reduces the component cost of crafting items by 15%"
- Tune-up: "Allows you to upgrade lower quality components into higher quality ones."
- Waste not want not: "When disassembling an item, you get attached mods back."
- Edgerunner Artisan: "Allows you to craft Legendary items."
- Crazy Science: "Increases the sale price of crafted items by 10%. +1% per Perk level."
- Partially Working
- Only works until you reload your save, in which case it stops working.
- Cutting Edge: "Improves damages and all damage-related stats of crafted weapons by 5%."
- Partially Working
- Still not working on Melee. Keep in mind for Ranged, a 5% increase in all the stats is actually a lot more than 5% increase in overall DPS in the end
Technical Abilities - Engineering
- Blast Shielding: "Reduces damage taken from explosions by 10%."
- Working
- But even with the highest HP value possible, it is still impossible to survive an explosion. Tested with mods.
- Mech Looter: "When looting drones, mechs and robots, there is a 25% chance of looting a weapon mod or attachment."
- Can't touch this: "Grants immunity to all effects from your own grenades."
- Partially Working
- NOTE: This works for every grenade type EXCEPT Flashbangs. So it's mostly working.
- Grenadier: "The explosion radius of grenades is visible."
- Shrapnel: "All grenade types deal 20 damage in addition to their normal types."
- Not Working
- Tested and don't see any difference
- Up to 11: "Allows you to charge Tech weapons up to 75% capacity."
- Working
- Note that Tech weapons do NOT charge to 100% by default. They charge up to 50%, which is relevant to other perks in the tree that mention full charge.
- Lock and load: "Increases Smart weapons reload speed by 5%."
- Bladerunner: "Increase damage to drones, mech and robots by 20%."
- Bigger Booms: "Grenades deal 5% more damage."
- Not Working
- Can't see a difference. Like I noted above, the damage range is too wide to tell any difference
- Lighting Bolt: "Increases Crit Chance with Tech weapons by 3%."
- Tesla: "Increase the charge multiplier for Tech weapons by 15%."
- Gun Whisperer: "Fully charged Tech weapons do not shoot automatically."
- Working
- Does not work for the DR12 Quasar and Kenshin Pistols
- Ubercharge: "Fully charged Tech weapons deal 50% more damage."
- Working
- Needs "Up To 11" Perk to work. Tested originally with the Kenshin pistol and it did not work. Quasar worked, so please message me if you see that it doesn't work for certain tech guns.
- Insulation: "Grants immunity to shock."
- Working
- Shock = electric damage. Electricity on ground = electric. Enemy attacks applying shock = electric. Enemy grenades = EMP (so not electric damage), meaning this will not prevent damage from grenades. I don't know what other sources of EMP there are, but this is consistent with the clothing mod as well.
- Fuck all walls: "Reduces the charge amount needed for Tech weapons to penetrate walls by 30%."
- Working
- This is really hard to tell. Never had much issue having tech guns pierce walls, and the charge is pretty fast so I could be wrong.
- Play the angles: "Ricochets deal an additional 50% damage."
- Lickety Split: "Tech weapons charge time is reduced by 10%."
- Superconductor: "Tech weapons ignore Armor."
- Revamp: "Increases damage Tech weapons by 25%, increases charges damage from all chargeable weapons and cyberware by 10%. +1% charge damage per Perk level."
- Not Working
- Only works after the first time learning the perk. Reloading save disables the perk.
- Jackpot: "Enables grenades to deal Crit Hits."
Cool - Stealth
- Silent And Deadly: "Increases damage dealt by silenced weapons by 25% while sneaking."
- Crouching Tiger: "Increases movement speed while sneaking by 20%."
- Hidden Dragon: "Allows you to perform lethal or non-lethal aerial takedowns on unaware targets."
- Dagger Dealer: "Allows you to throw knives. Hold L2 to aim and press R2 to throw."
- Working
- Still doesn't return the knife, but you can definitely throw them lol
- Leg Up: "Movement speed after a successful takedown is increased by 30% for 10 sec."
- Strike From The Shadows: "Increases your Crit Chance by 15% while sneaking."
- Assassin: "Deal 15% more damage to human enemies."
- Sniper: "Increases damage from headshots fired from outside combat by 30%."
- Cutthroat: "Thrown knives deal 30% more damage."
- Aggressive Antitoxins: "Grants immunity to Poison."
- Clean Work: "You can pick up an enemy's body immediately after performing a takedown by holding R3."
- Stunning Blows: "Quick Melee Attacks with ranged weapons stagger enemies, giving you an opportunity to grapple them."
- From The Shadows: "Upon entering combat, Crit Chance increases by 25% for 7 sec."
- Ghost: "Detection time is increased by 20%."
- Commando: "You cannot be detected under water."
- No One Cares
- Pretty sure in 1.1 this still holds true
- Venomous Fangs: "All knives apply Poison."
- Rattlesnake: "Enemies affected by Poison are slowed."
- Not Working
- In combat they still move the same.
- Silent Finisher: "Enemies with less than 15% Health are defeated instantly when attacked with a Knife. Does not work on enemies with a Very High threat level."
- Hasty Retreat: "Temporarily boosts movement speed by 50% for 5 sec. when detected by an enemy."
- Restorative Shadows: "While in stealth, increases Health regen by 25%."
- Neurotoxin: "Damage from Poison is doubled."
- Working
- Does not work with Contagion, but worked with all other sources of poison
- Hasten The Inevitable: "Deal 20% more damage to enemies affected by Poison."
- Overworking
- Still works on every weapon with or without poison.
- Cheat Death: "When your Health drops below 50%, reduce all incoming damage by 50% for 10 sec. Cannot occur more than once per minute."
- Ninjutsu: "Crouch Attacks from stealth with melee weapons deal 100% more damage."
- Not Working
- Only worked specifically with Baseball bats. Nothing else.
- Toxicology: "Increases the duration of Poison applied to enemies by 5 seconds. +0.2 sec. per Perk level."
- Not Working
- This perk doesn't work even before reloading the save.
Cool - Cold Blood
- Cold Blood: "After defeating an enemy, gain Cold Blood for 10 sec. and increase movement speed by 2%. Stacks up to 1 time."
- Will to Survive: "Increases all Resistances by 2.5% per stack of Cold Blood."
- Icy Veins: "Reduces weapon recoil by 2.5% per stack of Cold Blood."
- Not Working
- Retested using a Copperhead assault rifle. 5 stacks recoil pattern looked the same as no stacks
- Frosty Synapses: "Reduces quickhack cooldowns by 3% per stack of Cold Blood."
- Working
- Previously not working, working now. Tested with Suicide
- Critical Condition: "Increases duration of Cold Blood by 5 sec."
- Rapid Bloodflow: "Increase Health regen inside and outside combat by 50% per stack of Cold Blood."
- Defensive Clotting: "Increases Armor by 10% per stack of Cold Blood."
- Coldest Blood: "Increases max stack amount for Cold Blood by 1."
- Frozen Precision: "Increases headshot damage by 50%."
- Working
- Hard to tell even with a low headshot multiplier weapon. Shows on the weapon, with or without cold blood stacks.
- Blood Brawl: "While Cold Blood is active, increases damage with melee weapons by 5%."
- Working
- Easy to mistake as this being a stacking perk. It's only a flat 10% increase with Cold Blood active, regardless of stacks
- Predator: "Increases attack speed by 10% per stack of Cold Blood."
- Working
- Works up to your melee weapon's attack speed cap. See Appendix for details.
- Quick Transfer: "Reduces quickhack upload time by 1% per stack of Cold Blood."
- Cold and Calculating: "Landing a Crit Hit has 25% chance of applying a stack of Cold Blood."
- Bloodswell: "When your Health reaches 45%, a max stack of Cold Blood is automatically activated."
- Working
- Does apply max stacks, but reminder that without Coolagulant all stacks will remove at once.
- Coolagulant: "Stacks of Cold Blood are removed one by one, not all at once."
- Unbreakable: "Increases max stack amount for Cold Blood by 1."
- Pain Is An Illusion: "While Cold Blood is active, reduces damage taken by 5%."
- Immunity: "While Cold Blood is active, you are immune to Bleeding, Poison, Burn and Shock."
- Working
- NOTE: I don't see this working with Shock. If anyone can confirm please let me know
- Merciless: "While Cold Blood is active, increases Crit Chance by 10% and Crit Damage by 25%. +1% Crit Chance and +3% Crit Damage per Perk level."
- Not Working
- This perk only works the first save instance where you learn it. Reloading the save will disable the perk no matter how many points you put into it.
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Books on Epistemology, Critical thinking, beliefs etc - A comprehensive list
A comprehensive list of books that might be of interest to people whom want to, or do practice SE.
They can also work as book recommendations for people whom you have spoken to, that want to read something that might improve their thinking or as gifts.
I have not read most of these, thus I can not personally vouch for them or recommend one over the other.
But if you do read any of them, or have any opinion it would be nice if you could create a post.
I'm not affiliated with Goodreads, but linked to them since they have links to several sources including libraries if you want to get any one of these, and often some quality reviews.
How to Have Impossible Conversations: A Very Practical Guide https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/43885240-how-to-have-impossible-conversations by Peter Boghossian (Goodreads Author), James A. Lindsay (Goodreads Author)
3.99 · Rating details · 928 ratings
"This is a self-help book on how to argue effectively, conciliate, and gently persuade. The authors admit to getting it wrong in their own past conversations. One by one, I recognize the same mistakes in me. The world would be a better place if everyone read this book." -- Richard Dawkins, author of Science in the Soul and Outgrowing God
In our current political climate, it seems impossible to have a reasonable conversation with anyone who has a different opinion. Whether you're online, in a classroom, an office, a town hall -- or just hoping to get through a family dinner with a stubborn relative -- dialogue shuts down when perspectives clash. Heated debates often lead to insults and shaming, blocking any possibility of productive discourse. Everyone seems to be on a hair trigger.
In How to Have Impossible Conversations, Peter Boghossian and James Lindsay guide you through the straightforward, practical, conversational techniques necessary for every successful conversation -- whether the issue is climate change, religious faith, gender identity, race, poverty, immigration, or gun control. Boghossian and Lindsay teach the subtle art of instilling doubts and opening minds. They cover everything from learning the fundamentals for good conversations to achieving expert-level techniques to deal with hardliners and extremists. This book is the manual everyone needs to foster a climate of civility, connection, and empathy.
Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, Sheila Heen
4.10 · Rating details · 12,354 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/774088.Difficult_Conversations Whether you're dealing with an under performing employee, disagreeing with your spouse about money or child-rearing, negotiating with a difficult client, or simply saying "no," or "I'm sorry," or "I love you," we attempt or avoid difficult conversation every day. Based on fifteen years of research at the Harvard Negotiation Project, Difficult Conversations walks you through a step-by-step proven approach to having your toughest conversations with less stress and more success.
You will learn: -- how to start the conversation without defensiveness -- why what is not said is as important as what is -- ways of keeping and regaining your balance in the face of attacks and accusations -- how to decipher the underlying structure of every difficult conversation
Filled with examples from everyday life, Difficult Conversations will help you on your job, at home, or out of the world. It is a book you will turn to again and again for advice, practical skills, and reassurance.
The Thinker's Guide to Socratic Questioning by Dr. Linda Elder
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7276284-the-thinker-s-guide-to-socratic-questioning Focuses on the mechanics of Socratic dialogue, on the conceptual tools that critical thinking brings to Socratic dialogue, and on the importance of questioning in cultivating the disciplined mind.
About author:
Dr. Linda Elder is an educational psychologist and a prominent authority on critical thinking. She is President of the Foundation for Critical Thinking and Executive Director of the Center for Critical Thinking.
From a review:
"...it is primarily a set of instructions detailing how to lead a Socratic dialog among (different ages of) K-12 students."
-Feliks
A Manual for Creating Atheists by Peter Boghossian (Goodreads Author), Michael Shermer (Foreword) 3.93 · Rating details · 1,983 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17937621-a-manual-for-creating-atheists For thousands of years, the faithful have honed proselytizing strategies and talked people into believing the truth of one holy book or another. Indeed, the faithful often view converting others as an obligation of their faith—and are trained from an early age to spread their unique brand of religion. The result is a world broken in large part by unquestioned faith. As an urgently needed counter to this tried-and-true tradition of religious evangelism, A Manual for Creating Atheists offers the first-ever guide not for talking people into faith—but for talking them out of it. Peter Boghossian draws on the tools he has developed and used for more than twenty years as a philosopher and educator to teach how to engage the faithful in conversations that will help them value reason and rationality, cast doubt on their religious beliefs, mistrust their faith, abandon superstition, and irrationality, and ultimately embrace reason.
The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths by Michael Shermer 3.93 · Rating details · 6,985 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9754534-the-believing-brain The Believing Brain is bestselling author Michael Shermer's comprehensive and provocative theory on how beliefs are born, formed, reinforced, challenged, changed, and extinguished.
In this work synthesizing thirty years of research, psychologist, historian of science, and the world's best-known skeptic Michael Shermer upends the traditional thinking about how humans form beliefs about the world. Simply put, beliefs come first and explanations for beliefs follow. The brain, Shermer argues, is a belief engine. From sensory data flowing in through the senses, the brain naturally begins to look for and find patterns, and then infuses those patterns with meaning. Our brains connect the dots of our world into meaningful patterns that explain why things happen, and these patterns become beliefs. Once beliefs are formed the brain begins to look for and find confirmatory evidence in support of those beliefs, which accelerates the process of reinforcing them, and round and round the process goes in a positive-feedback loop of belief confirmation. Shermer outlines the numerous cognitive tools our brains engage to reinforce our beliefs as truths.
Interlaced with his theory of belief, Shermer provides countless real-world examples of how this process operates, from politics, economics, and religion to conspiracy theories, the supernatural, and the paranormal. Ultimately, he demonstrates why science is the best tool ever devised to determine whether or not a belief matches reality.
Critical Thinking: Tools for Taking Charge of Your Professional and Personal Life by Richard Paul,Linda Elder 3.93 · Rating details · 1,082 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17296839-critical-thinking Critical Thinking is about becoming a better thinker in every aspect of your life: in your career, and as a consumer, citizen, friend, parent, and lover. Discover the core skills of effective thinking; then analyze your own thought processes, identify weaknesses, and overcome them. Learn how to translate more effective thinking into better decisions, less frustration, more wealth Ñ and above all, greater confidence to pursue and achieve your most important goals in life.
The Thinker's Guide to Analytic Thinking by Linda Elder,Richard Paul
3.89 · Rating details · 163 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19227921-the-thinker-s-guide-to-analytic-thinking This guide focuses on the intellectual skills that enable one to analyze anything one might think about - questions, problems, disciplines, subjects, etc. It provides the common denominator between all forms of analysis.
It is based on the assumption that all reasoning can be taken apart and analyzed for quality.
This guide introduces the elements of reasoning as implicit in all reasoning. It begins with this idea - that whenever we think, we think for a purpose, within a point of view, based on assumptions, leading to implications and consequences. We use data, facts and experiences (information), to make inferences and judgments,based on concepts and theories to answer a question or solve a problem. Thus the elements of thought are: purpose, questions, information, inferences, assumptions, concepts, implications and point of view. In this guide, authors Linda Elder and Richard Paul explain, exemplify and contextualize these elements or structures of thought, showing the importance of analyzing reasoning in every part of human life. This guide can be used as a supplement to any text or course at the college level; and it may be used for improving thinking in personal and professional life.
The Thinker's Guide to Intellectual Standards by Linda Elder, Richard Paul
4.19 · Rating details · 16 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/19017637-the-thinker-s-guide-to-intellectual-standards Humans routinely assess thinking – their own thinking, and that of others, and yet they don’t necessarily use standards for thought that are reasonable, rational, sound.
To think well, people need to routinely meet intellectual standards, standards of clarity, precision, accuracy, relevance, depth, logic, fairness, significance, and so forth.
In this guide authors Elder and Paul offer a brief analysis of some of the most important intellectual standards in the English language. They look at the opposites of these standards. They argue for their contextualization within subjects and disciplines. And, they call attention to the forces that undermine their skilled use in thinking well. At present intellectual standards tend to be either taught implicitly, or ignored in instruction. Yet because they are essential to high quality reasoning in every part of human life, they should be explicitly taught and explicitly understood.
The Truth Seeker’s Handbook: A Science-Based Guide by Gleb Tsipursky (Goodreads Author) 4.24 · Rating details · 63 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36800752-the-truth-seeker-s-handbook How do you know whether something is true? How do you convince others to believe the facts?
Research shows that the human mind is prone to making thinking errors - predictable mistakes that cause us to believe comfortable lies over inconvenient truths. These errors leave us vulnerable to making decisions based on false beliefs, leading to disastrous consequences for our personal lives, relationships, careers, civic and political engagement, and for our society as a whole.
Fortunately, cognitive and behavioral scientists have uncovered many useful strategies for overcoming our mental flaws.
This book presents a variety of research-based tools for ensuring that our beliefs are aligned with reality.
With examples from daily life and an engaging style, the book will provide you with the skills to avoid thinking errors and help others to do so, preventing disasters and facilitating success for yourself, those you care about, and our society.
On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not by Robert A. Burton 3.90 · Rating details · 2,165 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2740964-on-being-certain You recognize when you know something for certain, right? You "know" the sky is blue, or that the traffic light had turned green, or where you were on the morning of September 11, 2001--you know these things, well, because you just do. In On Being Certain, neurologist Robert Burton challenges the notions of how we think about what we know.
He shows that the feeling of certainty we have when we "know" something comes from sources beyond our control and knowledge.
In fact, certainty is a mental sensation, rather than evidence of fact.
Because this "feeling of knowing" seems like confirmation of knowledge, we tend to think of it as a product of reason.
But an increasing body of evidence suggests that feelings such as certainty stem from primitive areas of the brain, and are independent of active, conscious reflection and reasoning. The feeling of knowing happens to us; we cannot make it happen. Bringing together cutting edge neuroscience, experimental data, and fascinating anecdotes, Robert Burton explores the inconsistent and sometimes paradoxical relationship between our thoughts and what we actually know.
Provocative and groundbreaking, On Being Certain, will challenge what you know (or think you know) about the mind, knowledge, and reason.
Asking the Right Questions: A Guide to Critical Thinking by M. Neil Browne, Stuart M. Keeley
3.94 · Rating details · 1,290 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/394398.Asking_the_Right_Questions The habits and attitudes associated with critical thinking are transferable to consumer, medical, legal, and general ethical choices. When our surgeon says surgery is needed, it can be life sustaining to seek answers to the critical questions encouraged in Asking the Right Questions This popular book helps bridge the gap between simply memorizing or blindly accepting information, and the greater challenge of critical analysing the things we are told and read. It gives strategies for responding to alternative points of view and will help readers develop a solid foundation for making personal choices about what to accept and what to reject.
On Truth by Simon Blackburn 3.60 · Rating details · 62 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/36722220-on-truth Truth is not just a recent topic of contention. Arguments about it have gone on for centuries. Why is the truth important? Who decides what the truth is? Is there such a thing as objective, eternal truth, or is truth simply a matter of perspective, of linguistic or cultural vantage point?
In this concise book Simon Blackburn provides an accessible explanation of what truth is and how we might think about it.
The first half of the book details several main approaches to how we should think about, and decide, what is true.
These are philosophical theories of truth such as the correspondence theory, the coherence theory, deflationism, and others.
He then examines how those approaches relate to truth in several contentious domains: art, ethics, reasoning, religion, and the interpretation of texts.
Blackburn's overall message is that truth is often best thought of not as a product or an end point that is 'finally' achieved, but--as the American pragmatist thinkers thought of it--as an ongoing process of inquiry. The result is an accessible and tour through some of the deepest and thorniest questions philosophy has ever tackled
Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
4.16 · Rating details · 317,352 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=ZNhf1bAIxd&rank=1 In the highly anticipated Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. Kahneman exposes the extraordinary capabilities—and also the faults and biases—of fast thinking, and reveals the pervasive influence of intuitive impressions on our thoughts and behavior. The impact of loss aversion and overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the challenges of properly framing risks at work and at home, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning the next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems work together to shape our judgments and decisions.
Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking.
He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Thinking, Fast and Slow will transform the way you think about thinking.
Before You Know It: The Unconscious Reasons We Do What We Do by John A. Bargh (Goodreads Author)
3.97 · Rating details · 788 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35011639-before-you-know-it Dr. John Bargh, the world’s leading expert on the unconscious mind, presents a “brilliant and convincing book” (Malcolm Gladwell) cited as an outstanding read of 2017 by Business Insider and The Financial Times—giving us an entirely new understanding of the hidden mental processes that secretly govern every aspect of our behavior.
For more than three decades, Dr. John Bargh has conducted revolutionary research into the unconscious mind, research featured in bestsellers like Blink and Thinking Fast and Slow. Now, in what Dr. John Gottman said was “the most important and exciting book in psychology that has been written in the past twenty years,” Dr. Bargh takes us on an entertaining and enlightening tour of the forces that affect everyday behavior while transforming our understanding of ourselves in profound ways.
Dr. Bargh takes us into his labs at New York University and Yale—where he and his colleagues have discovered how the unconscious guides our behavior, goals, and motivations in areas like race relations, parenting, business, consumer behavior, and addiction.
With infectious enthusiasm he reveals what science now knows about the pervasive influence of the unconscious mind in who we choose to date or vote for, what we buy, where we live, how we perform on tests and in job interviews, and much more.
Because the unconscious works in ways we are completely unaware of, Before You Know It is full of surprising and entertaining revelations as well as useful tricks to help you remember items on your to-do list, to shop smarter, and to sleep better.
Before You Know It is “a fascinating compendium of landmark social-psychology research” (Publishers Weekly) and an introduction to a fabulous world that exists below the surface of your awareness and yet is the key to knowing yourself and unlocking new ways of thinking, feeling, and behaving.
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38315.Fooled_by_Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4.07 · Rating details · 49,010 ratings
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand.
Philosophy books Epistemology by Richard Feldman 3.84 · Rating details · 182 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/387295.Epistemology Sophisticated yet accessible and easy to read, this introduction to contemporary philosophical questions about knowledge and rationality goes beyond the usual bland survey of the major current views to show that there is argument involved. Throughout, the author provides a fair and balanced blending of the standard positions on epistemology with his own carefully reasoned positions or stances into the analysis of each concept. KEY TOPICS: Epistemological Questions. The Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Modifying the Traditional Analysis of Knowledge. Evidentialist Theories of Justification. Non-evidentialist Theories of Knowledge and Justification. Skepticism. Epistemology and Science. Relativism.
Problems of Knowledge: A Critical Introduction to Epistemology by Michael J. Williams
3.79 · Rating details · 86 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477904.Problems_of_Knowledge "What is epistemology or 'the theory of knowledge'? Why does it matter? What makes theorizing about knowledge 'philosophical'? And why do some philosophers argue that epistemology - perhaps even philosophy itself - is dead?" "
In this introduction, Michael Williams answers these questions, showing how epistemological theorizing is sensitive to a range of questions about the nature, limits, methods, and value of knowing.
He pays special attention to the challenge of philosophical scepticism: does our 'knowledge' rest on brute assumptions? Does the rational outlook undermine itself?"
Williams explains and criticizes all the main contemporary philosophical perspectives on human knowledge, such as foundationalism, the coherence theory, and 'naturalistic' theories. As an alternative to all of them, he defends his distinctive contextualist approach.
As well as providing an accessible introduction for any reader approaching the subject for the first time, this book incorporates Williams's own ideas which will be of interest to all philosophers concerned with the theory of knowledge.
Epistemology: A Contemporary Introduction to the Theory of Knowledge by Robert Audi
3.54 · Rating details · 176 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477976.Epistemology This comprehensive book introduces the concepts and theories central for understanding knowledge. It aims to reach students who have already done an introductory philosophy course. Topics covered include perception and reflection as grounds of knowledge, and the nature, structure, and varieties of knowledge. The character and scope of knowledge in the crucial realms of ethics, science and religion are also considered. Unique features of Epistemology:
- Provides a comprehensive survey of basic concepts and major theories
- Gives an up-to-date account of important developments in the field
- Contains many lucid examples to support ideas
- Cites key literature in an annotated bibliography.
The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/14829260-the-oxford-handbook-of-thinking-and-reasoning by Keith J. Holyoak (Editor), Robert G. Morrison (Editor)
4.08 · Rating details · 12 ratings
Thinking and reasoning, long the academic province of philosophy, have over the past century emerged as core topics of empirical investigation and theoretical analysis in the modern fields of cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience. Formerly seen as too complicated and amorphous to be included in early textbooks on the science of cognition, the study of thinking and reasoning has since taken off, brancing off in a distinct direction from the field from which it originated.
The Oxford Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is a comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning.
Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading.
Chapters include introductions to foundational issues and methods of study in the field, as well as treatment of specific types of thinking and reasoning and their application in a broad range of fields including business, education, law, medicine, music, and science.
The volume will be of interest to scholars and students working in developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, education, and linguistics.
Feminist Epistemologies (Thinking Gender) by Linda Martín Alcoff, Elizabeth Potter 4.14 · Rating details · 43 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/477960.Feminist_Epistemologies Noticed this review by an evangelical:
"I have found this an immensely suggestive book, collecting as it does essays from both prominent and rising figures in feminist philosophy of knowledge--albeit from about two decades ago. I am struck by how little impact feminist thought, even of this high and generally temperate quality, has had on evangelical theology, to the shame of my guild."
-John
The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us by Christopher Chabris, Daniel Simons 3.91 Rating details · 13,537 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/7783191-the-invisible-gorilla Reading this book will make you less sure of yourself—and that’s a good thing. In The Invisible Gorilla, Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, creators of one of psychology’s most famous experiments, use remarkable stories and counterintuitive scientific findings to demonstrate an important truth: Our minds don’t work the way we think they do. We think we see ourselves and the world as they really are, but we’re actually missing a whole lot.
Again and again, we think we experience and understand the world as it is, but our thoughts are beset by everyday illusions. We write traffic laws and build criminal cases on the assumption that people will notice when something unusual happens right in front of them. We’re sure we know where we were on 9/11, falsely believing that vivid memories are seared into our minds with perfect fidelity. And as a society, we spend billions on devices to train our brains because we’re continually tempted by the lure of quick fixes and effortless self-improvement.
The Invisible Gorilla reveals the myriad ways that our intuitions can deceive us, but it’s much more than a catalog of human failings. Chabris and Simons explain why we succumb to these everyday illusions and what we can do to inoculate ourselves against their effects. Ultimately, the book provides a kind of x-ray vision into our own minds, making it possible to pierce the veil of illusions that clouds our thoughts and to think clearly for perhaps the first time.
The Honest Truth About Dishonesty: How We Lie to Everyone - Especially Ourselves by Dan Ariely 3.94 · Rating details · 13,620 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13426114-the-honest-truth-about-dishonesty The New York Times bestselling author of Predictably Irrational and The Upside of Irrationality returns with thought-provoking work to challenge our preconceptions about dishonesty and urge us to take an honest look at ourselves.
Does the chance of getting caught affect how likely we are to cheat? How do companies pave the way for dishonesty? Does collaboration make us more honest or less so? Does religion improve our honesty?
Most of us think of ourselves as honest, but, in fact, we all cheat.
From Washington to Wall Street, the classroom to the workplace, unethical behavior is everywhere. None of us is immune, whether it's the white lie to head off trouble or padding our expense reports. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, award-winning, bestselling author Dan Ariely turns his unique insight and innovative research to the question of dishonesty.
Generally, we assume that cheating, like most other decisions, is based on a rational cost-benefit analysis.
But Ariely argues, and then demonstrates, that it's actually the irrational forces that we don't take into account that often determine whether we behave ethically or not.
For every Enron or political bribe, there are countless puffed résumés, hidden commissions, and knockoff purses. In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Ariely shows why some things are easier to lie about; how getting caught matters less than we think; and how business practices pave the way for unethical behavior, both intentionally and unintentionally. Ariely explores how unethical behavior works in the personal, professional, and political worlds, and how it affects all of us, even as we think of ourselves as having high moral standards.
But all is not lost. Ariely also identifies what keeps us honest, pointing the way for achieving higher ethics in our everyday lives. With compelling personal and academic findings, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty will change the way we see ourselves, our actions, and others.
How to Stop Believing in Hell: a Schizophrenic's Religious Experience: Intellectual Honesty and Hallucinations - A Memoir by Robert Clayton Kimball
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22020049-how-to-stop-believing-in-hell it was amazing 5.00 · Rating details · 1 rating Kirkus Reviews:
“…Kimball’s debut explores his hallucinatory religious mania, from his early childhood onward, beginning when he attended Catholic school. The early pages guide readers through narratives of his uncomfortable childhood traumas, sometimes in ugly detail…. Various other moments of shame revolved around school. Finding sex repugnant and sinful, he decided early on to remain celibate; he avoided sex until his eventual institutionalization. Meanwhile, hallucinatory monsters—including Lorus, “a turbulent face, golden like the comedy mask…”—and company pushed him away from religion, though he did convert to Pentecostalism in spite of them. Through this process, Kimball developed a solipsistic worldview, in which he was never sure others existed. Ultimately, though, it was his fear of damnation that became his greatest obsession, driving all the rest of his delusions and fears. He does exhibit a flair for description…: “On summer evenings, I liked to stand on the arroyo side of the house at night, alone, feeling the desert breeze through the tamarisks and smelling the clean desert smells in the warm darkness. The long row of tamarisks, with its tens of thousands of insects of a thousand species, hummed like the telephone network in The Castle, a beautiful, accidental music.’”
Author’s Description:
How to Stop Believing in Hell, describes the narrator's passage from a golden childhood to an adolescence of cringing guilt and religious fear. By the age of thirty, he had become a deranged street person, screaming horrible obscenities on crowded sidewalks in broad daylight. He desperately tried to stop but couldn’t. He was still filled with the fear of Hell. Then he had a spiritual awakening, broke free of his dementia, and learned to act deliberately. A paperback copy of this book can be purchased through my publisher, Chipmunka Publishing at their web site.
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark by Carl Sagan, Ann Druyan (Goodreads Author)
4.27 · Rating details · 59,893 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17349.The_Demon_Haunted_World How can we make intelligent decisions about our increasingly technology-driven lives if we don’t understand the difference between the myths of pseudoscience and the testable hypotheses of science? Pulitzer Prize-winning author and distinguished astronomer Carl Sagan argues that scientific thinking is critical not only to the pursuit of truth but to the very well-being of our democratic institutions.
Casting a wide net through history and culture, Sagan examines and authoritatively debunks such celebrated fallacies of the past as witchcraft, faith healing, demons, and UFOs. And yet, disturbingly, in today's so-called information age, pseudoscience is burgeoning with stories of alien abduction, channeling past lives, and communal hallucinations commanding growing attention and respect. As Sagan demonstrates with lucid eloquence, the siren song of unreason is not just a cultural wrong turn but a dangerous plunge into darkness that threatens our most basic freedoms.
How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age by Theodore Schick Jr. Lewis Vaughn, Martin Gardner (Foreword)
4.00 · Rating details · 530 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41756.How_to_Think_about_Weird_Things This text serves well as a supplemental text in:
- critical thinking
- logic
- introduction to philosophy
- philosophy of science
- epistemology
- metaphysics
- introduction to psychology
- anomalistic psychology
- perception and cognition
as well as any introductory science course.
It has been used in all of the courses mentioned above as well as introductory biology, introductory physics, and introductory chemistry courses. It could also serve as a main text for courses in evaluation of the paranormal, philosophical implications of the paranormal, occult beliefs, and pseudoscience.
Popular Statistics Naked Statistics: Stripping the Dread from the Data by Charles Wheelan 3.94 · Rating details · 10,367 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17986418-naked-statistics Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more. For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't by Nate Silver
3.98 · Rating details · 43,804 ratings · 3,049 reviews
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13588394-the-signal-and-the-noise One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012
New York Times Bestseller
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." -New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." -Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction-without academic mathematics-cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." -New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger-all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, Lego, and Rubber Ducks by Will Kurt 4.21 · Rating details · 128 ratings
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41392893-bayesian-statistics-the-fun-way Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples.
Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.
This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.
By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:
- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them
Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.
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baseball batting stats meaning video
Traditionally, statistics like batting average for batters (the number of hits divided by the number of at bats) and earned run average (approximately the number of runs given up by a pitcher per nine innings) have governed the statistical world of baseball. BA = Batting average – A hitter’s batting average is calculated by taking the number of hits divided by the number of “official” at bats. OBP = On base percentage – A players on base percentage is how many times they reach base safely via a hit, walk, or hit by pitch divided by number of at bats, plus walks, plus hit by pitch, plus sacrifice flies. Batting Stats. The next part of understanding baseball stats are the three main batting stats: batting average (BA, or AVG above), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging (SLG). Most stats in baseball change league-to-league depending on the quality of pitching/hitting, ballpark dimensions, elevation, and other factors, and batting average is no different, leading to a somewhat wide gap in averages across professional baseball. Traditional Baseball Stat Abbreviations – Batting. G – Games played: The number of games the player has appeared in during the current MLB season. AB – At bats: The number of times the player has been at bat, defined as plate appearances minus sacrifices, walks, and Hit by Pitches. Baseball stats consist of numerous metrics, some of them straight-forward, some of them quite advanced. The metric I chose to take a look at is batting average(AVG) . In baseball, the batting average is defined by the number of hits divided by at bats. Standard Stats For more than a century, statistics have been a staple of the game of baseball. Arguably no sport has a closer relationship with the stats that chronicle its every play. A glossary for batting stats on Baseball-Reference.com. The player, team and league statlines are now dramatically different than when the site first launched, so a comprehensive list of the stats would take far longer and would likely be much less useful than previously. One of the oldest and most universal tools to measure a hitter's success at the plate, batting average is determined by dividing a player's hits by his total at-bats for a number between zero Part of being a baseball fan these days is having at least a passing familiarity with advanced statistics -- i.e., the metrics that go beyond the usual fare of RBI, batting average, ERA, fielding
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baseball batting stats meaning
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