Listen up retards. Do you happen to feel regret because you always think “ohhh if I yoloed my savings on TSLA/AMD/NVDA 🚀 leaps years ago I could be rich by now!!!” submitted by Audacimmus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Well if you didn't know already, it doesn’t really matter what happened in the past. Hindsight will always be 20/20. You shouldn’t be harsh on yourself on your past self that your past self wasn’t retarded enough to yolo their savings into AMD/TSLA/.... Your past self doesn’t have the same knowledge that your current self has. It’s fine. If you judged those stocks with the best DD you could do at the time and didn’t think they were worth it, then you did a good job. If you always think about what you could/should have done in the past, then you don't have the right attitude to play the stock market casino imho. The single most important thing is to be able to look ahead. There are always plenty of opportunities around. There are thousands of rockets that are still on earth right now. Some may depart this year, others will stay a little longer on earth. The true strength lies in being able to identify those rockets with the knowledge you have right now. And if you still miss most rockets that will take-off this year that's fine, maybe you'll learn, get better and you'll do better next year. Now, what if I told you there’s a big rocket that’s parked right right here on earth and it has decent chance for take-off this year? Maybe it won't quite reach the moon this year yet, but hey leaving the exosphere should already be a cool milestone. It has rock-solid fundamentals and will see lots of growth in the following years/decade. It’s a company that has the fundamental technology to power all the computer vision tech, which is bound to boom this decade. The company we’re talking about is of course Sony, and it is extremely undervalued right now. Its P/E is only 14. They have a P/S of 1.65, a PEG of 0.92 (< 2 is already somewhat exceptional for a company/conglomerate of Sony’s size, under 1 is a steal) Much lower than all of its same-sector peers. This indicates significant undervaluation. Next up Sony has a P/CF 13.2, ROE of 20% (S&P 500 average is 14% which would already be considered pretty good. 20% ROE is excellent), PEGY of 0.89, P/B of 2.65 and finally Sony has $41.6B in cash on hand. This makes Sony one of the cheapest tech/entertainment/EV/semiconductor growth stocks you will find on the market. (ROE of 20% + PEGY of 0.89 + PEG of 0.92 means this company is a growth stock based on the numbers alone, but we’ll dig into the actual company and overall outlook in a moment) I challenge all retards to find a company with similar benchmarks in one of the mentioned sectors, seriously. Quite frankly doing this DD honestly blew my mind. I kept looking everywhere for reasons why the company could be so undervalued and why they may struggle in the future. Very important to look at all the challenges the company faces to make sure I’m not just doing confirmation bias DD. But all I could find was the opposite. After several weeks and months of working on this DD, I can only conclude that it is overall a very solid company for a bargain price. The new CEO is taking the company in a great direction imho and I'm begin to think he could be Sony's Satya Nadella. So if you want some easy tendies, maybe consider $SNE while it is still cheap, I’d say. For the autists out there who care about analyst ratings, SONY ($SNE) currently has 18 BUY ratings, 2 OVERWEIGHT, 4 HOLD and 0 SELL. (= analyst consensus is a STRONG BUY). Very little analysts cover this stock compared to other entertainment/tech companies, so this adds to my assertion that the stock is very much under the radar. Which means you have time to get in before it gets noticed by the larger investing world and before it starts to get a more fair valuation (P/E of around 30 would be more fair for this company I think, but still cheaper than many same sector peers). But, anyway the few analysts who do happen to cover this company are basically all saying it’s an instant-buy at its current price. Most boomer investors still think big Japanese tech companies are dinosaurs that have long been surpassed by China, South Korea and Apple etc ages ago. Young boomers may think Sony = PlayStation and that it's it. But the truth is that PlayStation, while very important (about 24% of Sony's total revenue last year), is a part of a larger story. Lots of investors in general associate Sony with the passé Japanese electronics companies from the 80’s and the 90’s. Just like a lot people may think BlackBerry is a struggling phone company. While Sony may not be the powerhouse in consumer electronics it was in the 80’s and the 90’s, in a lot of ways they are more relevant than ever before. Despite being a well-known brand and being known as the company behind PlayStation, for some reason its stock still seems to be under the radar among both retail and institutional investors. And boy, are they mind-blowingly undervalued. Even if a big part of its business would collapse tomorrow, they would still be slightly undervalued. And I am about to tell you why. (& btw compared to Japanese tech/entertainment stocks $SNE is still super cheap (Canon, Nikon, Toshiba, Sharp, Panasonic, Square Enix, Capcom, Nintendo, Fujitsu all have P/E ratios ranging from 18 to 77 and none of them have the combination of global clout, fundamentals & growth prospects that Sony has)) 2021 Sony as a corparation is not the fucking Sony from 2005-2015’s, just like BlackBerry in 2021 is not the fucking Blackberry from 2012. Just like Garmin in 2021 is not Garmin from 2011. Just like AMD in 2021 is not AMD from 2012. No, in 2021, Sony is the global leader in imaging technology and people do not fucking realize it. Sony has 50% marketshare in the CMOS image sensor market. There’s a very good chance the smartphone in your pocket has Sony image sensors (unless it’s a Samsung phone). Sony image sensors are powering a big part of today's vision/camera technology. And they will power even more of tomorrow's computer vision tech. In 2021, Sony is a behemoth in video games, music, anime, movies and TV show production. Sony is present in every segment of entertainment. Sony’s entertainment branches have been doing great business over the past 5 years, especially music and PlayStation. Additionally, Sony Pictures has completely turned around. In 2021, Sony is the world’s biggest music publisher (and second biggest music company overall). Music streaming has been a boon for Sony Music and will continue to be. In 2021, Sony is among the biggest mobile gaming companies in the world (yes, you read that right). And it’s mainly thanks to one game (Fate/Grand Order) that nets them over $1B revenue each year. One of the biggest mobile gaming companies + arguably biggest gaming brand in the world (PlayStation). In 2021, Sony is an EV company. They surprised the world when they revealed their “Vision-S” at CES 2020. At the reception was fantastic. It is seriously one of the best looking EV’s. They already sell sensors to Toyota. Sony will most like sell the Vision-S's tech to other car manufacturers (sensors for driving assistence / autonomous driving, LiDAR tech, infotainment system). 40 sensors in the Sony Vision-S Considering the overwhelmingly good reception of the Vision-S so far, I suspect the Vision-S could be another catalyst that will put Sony as a company on the radar of investors and consumers. We've seen insane investment hype for anything even remotely related to EV over the past year. We've seen a company that barely had a few EV design concepts (oh wait, they had a gravity-powered truck though) even get a $30B market cap at some point lmao. But somehow a profitable company ($SNE) that has an EV that you can actually drive, doesn't even have a fair valuation? In 2020’s Sony’s brand value is at their highest point since 12 years. In 2021, it is projected to be a its highest point since 2001 assuming same growth as average yearly growth from 2015 to 2020. Keep in mind brand valuation is a bit bullshitty as there’s no standardization to compare brands from different sectors, let alone non-consumer-facing brands with consumer-facing brands. But one thing we can note is that Sony both as B2C brand and as a B2B company is on a big upwards trend. https://interbrand.com/best-global-brands/sony/ https://careers.uw.edu/blog/2020/03/17/these-are-the-10-biggest-video-game-companies-in-north-america-shared-article-from-zippia/ In 2021, Sony is an entertainment behemoth. They have grown their entertainment branches by a huge amount over the past 5 to 10 years (they made some big acquisitions in the music space especially and they’re now also all-in in anime). I don’t think people realize how big Sony is as an entertainment company. I dug up the numbers and as of Q3 2020, PlayStation is the second biggest video game company in the world (Tencent is #1) in revenue (I suspect Sony might dethrone Tencent after Sony’s FY Q3 2020 is released). But Sony already comes very close to Tencent especially if you add Fate/Grand Order (which is under Sony Music and not under PlayStation) under PlayStation. There’s no single other company that has this unique combination of a dominant/important position in all entertainment segments. (video games + music + movies + TV series + anime + TV networks). I guess Tencent maybe? In 2021, Sony has amazing momentum in the camera space. If you’re familiar with the enthusiast photography space, you should know this. Basically, the market is slowly shifting from SLR to mirrorless cameras. This is because mirrorless cameras tend to smallelighter, have faster AF, better low light performance, better battery life and better video performance. Sony is the company that has been specializing in the development for mirrorless cameras for over a decade while Canon’s bread and butter has always been SLR cameras. Sony is in the lead when it comes to mirrorless cameras and that’s where the market is shifting towards. Because the advantages of mirrorless have become more and more apparent and Sony’s cameras have become technically superior, Sony has gained quite a bit of market share over Canon and Nikon in the last few years. In 2019, Sony overtook Nikon as the #2 camera manufacturer. Sony is in an upwards trend here. (they have the ambition to become the world’s #1 camera brand) Sony also has very good marketing for their cameras. (Sony has a lot of YouTubers / influencers / brand ambassadors for their cameras despite being a smaller brand than Canon) (just search on YouTube and/or Google “switching to Sony from Canon” just to give you an idea that they do have amazing brand momentum in the camera space. You won’t get as many hits for the opposite) A huge portion of Sony’s profit comes from image sensors in addition to music and video games. This is in addition to their highly profitable financial holdings division & their more moderately profitable electronics division. Sony’s electronics division, unlike other Japanese brands, has shown great resilience against the very strong competition from China & South Korea. They have been able to maintain their position in the audio space and as of 2020 are still the global market leader in high-end TV’s (a position they have been holding for decades) and it seems they will continue to be able to maintain that. But seriously this company is dirt-cheap compared to any of its peers in any segment and there’s various huge growth prospects for Sony:
PS+ growth and software digital ratio growth
Sony Entertainment While Netflix, Disney, AT&T, Amazon, and Apple are waging the great streaming war, Sony has been quietly building its anime streaming empire over the past years.
Anime growth “The global size is expected to reach USD 36.26 billion by 2025, registering a CAGR of 8.8% over the forecast period, according to a study conducted by Grand View Research, Inc. Growing popularity and sales of Japanese anime content across the globe apart from Japan is driving the growth” (tl;dr anime 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀, Sony is all in on anime and they have pretty much no competition) Anime is the fastest growing subsegment of movies/video entertainment worldwide.
Sony Music Entertainment Japan Aniplex
US video game market growth (worldwide growth has a 13% CAGR) PlayStation revenue and operating profit growth
But so far the tl;dr Image sensors: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 IoT/Industry 4.0 chipsets: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 PS5/PSN/PS+: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Online medical services (M3 inc.): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Anime: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Fate/Grand Order: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Demon Slayer: Mugen Train 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Sony Music / music streaming (the performance of Sony Music’s in Sony’s business is seriously understated. The numbers speak for themselves): 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Sony Electronics 🚀 Sony Financial Holdings (very stable & profitable business, even managed to grow slightly during pandemic when most insurance companies performed more poorly): 🚀🚀🚀 Still have to cover Sony Pictures, but their upcoming movie slate looks pretty good honestly (Spider-Man sequel, Venom: Let There Be Darkness, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Uncharted, Morbius, Hotel Transylvania 4 so that's worth one rocket as well imho 🚀 tl;dr of tl;dr: 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. I am an idiot that's trying to understand why $SNE stock is so cheap. Positions: SNE 105C 21st January 22 |
Hi guys, submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments] I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it mattersThe first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners. Capital and position sizingThe first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself. Kelly CriterionIf you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How to use stop losses sensiblyStop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops. Picking a clear levelWhere you leave your stop loss is key.Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market. Coming up in part IIEDIT: part II hereLetting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns Coming up in part IIISqueezes and other risksMarket positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer. |
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Phil: At one point I think we thought that we could revisit the idea of doing a long side...like “Supper’s Ready”. You know, something that was like a body of work. And I think we kind of...I mean, that’s why there’s “Duke’s Travels”, “Duke’s End”, because we still liked those titles...that’s what’s left of that idea, really. 1Tony may not have wanted the comparisons to “Supper’s Ready”, but now that he’s come out and said that, how could I do anything else? I’ll have more to say about “Supper’s Ready” later on, but for now let’s just take an overly-simplified look at its structure. At a very high level it looks like this: Intro, Powerful Section, Gentle Section, Rock Section, Epic Instrumental Section, Reprise of Intro, Reprise of Strong Section.
Tony: They would’ve gone “Behind the Lines”, “Duchess”, “Guide Vocal”, “Turn It On Again”, “Duke’s Travels”, “Duke’s End”. Which is actually how it was performed live; we tried it. One reason we didn’t do it [on the album] is we didn’t want the comparison with “Supper’s Ready”, and felt maybe it wasn’t the moment to do a totally combined thing like that. As it is, there is quite a lot of linkage between those tracks anyhow; the first three are linked. 1
Phil: My commitment to Genesis is much greater than it ever was before. I would fight for it more now than I would have done before because it’s more me. That’s what it comes down to. There’s more of me in it. I’ve come a long way since And Then There Were Three, I really have...Duke for me isn’t just another Genesis album. It’s a whole period of growing up. A musical maturity if you like. 2It’s fitting for the song to be called “Travels”, because this one’s a ride. It opens with these warm cymbal waves, echoing guitar chords, and an almost tentative keyboard line. This all fades into nothing as Phil’s drums take over with heavy intensity, followed by a more melodic and driving keyboard bit on top. Switch from the rapid hollow drums to some cymbals and back again. Then you get this big bit that sounds like an alternate soundtrack to Casino Night Zone; it’s Sonic the Hedgehog eleven years in advance. There are melodies, countermelodies, textures, with a masterclass in drumming underpinning the whole shebang.
Phil: There’s definitely a side to us coming out which wasn’t on the last album: the playing side. 3Uhhh, yeah. Yeah, I’d say so. And now a pounding straight rhythm with some guitakeyboard interplay, creating a whole lot of tension. Again, this is like the build in “Apocalypse in 9/8” all over again, just with a somewhat different flavor. It’s bigger, and bigger, and bigger, and then oh my goodness what IS that heavenly sound on top of these goosebump-laden chords?
Tony: The Arpeggiator was one of the things which I used on “Duke’s Travels”, and what a marvelous effect that was! And it had a bass pedal on it and you had the polyphonic synthesizer on it so I could do all those other things as well. I have got two of them and there were only about a dozen of them [made], and I think the other ten only sold because I was using it! The company went bust after that or got taken over. It was a fun instrument. 4The Arpeggiator sounds like the name of a supervillain, or at least a nickname a group of friends would bestow on one of their drinking buddies for reasons too wrapped up in a certain time and place for anyone outside the group to possibly understand. Here though? Here it’s the hero of “Duke’s Travels”, putting that sparkly shimmer in the sky above the song’s most triumphant moment, making the whole thing dazzle in radiance while Mike’s guitar finally soars out of the background and across the illuminated heavens. And to then have “Guide Vocal” come back in the midst of it all? My my my. That’s the “666 is no longer alone” shiver-down-the-spine moment of “Duke’s Travels”, no question about it.
Tony: There’s a strong emotional moment when it gets to the repeat of “Guide Vocal” done within “Duke’s Travels”, which is a very intense piece of singing. To me that’s one of the strongest...one of the very strong moments in Genesis music. 1And then the song gradually bleeds energy over the rest of the “Guide Vocal” repeat, the emotion spent and the travels making their way home. A brief respite, a striking synth flute bit reminiscent of “The Court of the Crimson King”, and then the whole thing careens back into the Intro Reprise known as “Duke’s End”. I see a lot of people say things like “If ‘Apocalypse in 9/8’ were its own song, it would still be one of my favorite Genesis tunes.” And I find that all those people also really love “Duke’s Travels” because it is, essentially, “Apocalypse in 9/8” carved out as its own track. The context of the larger piece makes it that much stronger, but it’s perfectly capable of standing up under its own power as well.
Tony: Before we did the last tour I spent quite a few months getting all the sounds together, whatever I thought I could, including some of the processes from the older ones like the Synclavier sounds and a few others, and tried to get everything as close as I could to being right. Even so, when we got out there I had to change quite a bit. I was pretty well prepared actually. Mike was well prepared. Daryl is ALWAYS well prepared! Phil was completely unprepared, so it took him about two weeks of just trying to get to play how he used to, which was tough. Especially on a piece like “Duke’s Travels”, which was always a tough one. 4And what about the audience? How would they react?
Tony: I think the set is more demanding as it combines so many instrumental bits from various eras, like the…“Duke’s Travels” bits...It’s also demanding for the audience. Some of them you will lose during the instrumental bits as they don’t know them…The other thing is, we don’t have anything to prove; we’re just doing it. We’re playing to fans who know they like us. We’re not trying to convert them. Perhaps in the past we did that. 5I love this attitude. “We’re going to play what moves us, and you’ll either check out or come with us.” That attitude, that music...it’s why in my opinion the 2007 version of the medley is the best one they did. Something about that epic moment in “Duke’s Travels” just resonates, even when the arrangement changes so that the big vocal entrance is just an extension of Daryl Stuermer’s guitar solo. You can totally see what Tony was talking about here: the crowd cheers wildly for the end of the “Cinema Show” segment and even more wildly for the start of “Afterglow” but generally stand around puzzled during “Duke’s Travels”. “Wait, what’s this one? I don’t recognize this one. Do you recognize this one?” And yet it’s still the song that guides them home.
Tony: It’ll be kind of different. Phil used to have some very dramatic moments on stage with Genesis. He’d never have the same kind of dramatic moments or intensity we used to have...sitting on a chair. Obviously, the effects can help things out a bit. So, you just say, “He’s not going to do those the same way.” We’d just do the songs. We’ve got plenty of good songs to do and it wouldn’t be a problem. But I don’t think we could have the extended keyboard solo we did on the last tour in 2007 which had a bit of everything in it. There wouldn’t be much point, because the point of it was Mike, Phil, and I playing together, like we did on things such as “Duke’s Travels”. There would be a different intensity and a different kind of set list. 6That’s a real shame, because “Duke’s Travels” is a downright treat, especially in live form. I suppose we should be thankful we got what we did from it along the way.
Phil: The story of a mate of ours whose name was Albert. Albert was a born loser. Nothing he did went right; he was one of life’s failures. Written off, just like that. I’ll give an example: Albert once fell in love with a lady. 7Hmm, I guess “Behind the Lines” could be about falling in love with a character in print, couldn’t it? Reading the pages, feeling closer to someone, whether that be a fictional character or a celebrity in the news? Seems our old Albert was developing an infatuation!
Phil: Beautiful lady she was, beautiful lady...a duchess. And the duchess was a very domineering lady. She was into S&M. Ah, but poor old Albert didn’t speak Spanish or Mexican, so she kicked him out! And he went home that night, and was very disappointed and dejected. 7Ah, duchess like the title of the second track! I’m following this now, I think. Albert falls in love with this celebrity singer, who he doesn’t really know except through print media. He encounters her in real life, but doesn’t speak her native language, and his advances are rebuffed on that basis (and also because he’s kind of a creep). So Albert gets upset and writes the whole thing off in a sulky bit called “Guide Vocal” - dual meaning there, since a guide vocal is what you call the rough vocal track to line up the instrumentation before the real vocal is laid down. Albert thinks he’s the reason the Duchess succeeded! This is getting good, now.
Phil: So he sat down on the chair, and he turned on the television, and suddenly his whole life changed because he was back in love again! He fell in love! He fell in love with his television set. It was a really beautiful looking television set, square with sort of a glass bit in the middle. And it was a good conversational piece for his friends, but it was a bit of a one-sided affair for Albert. And in two days he was in hospital having the glass removed from his private parts. 7Ouch! But yes yes, we’re seeing it now. “All I need is a TV show...down on my luck again…” This is Albert coping with the loss by finding a new medium for his romantic fantasies! I just hope that bit with the hospital is merely a joke...
Phil: So he went on a convalescing holiday abroad over there, where tragedy struck again. Because Albert fell in love. Again. This time, with his walking stick. We’re not too sure about Albert; seems a bit of a weirdo. And I think you’ve guessed it: in two or three days time he was back in hospital having the walking stick removed from his private parts. So he came back from his convalescing holiday abroad over there, to England over here where we live, where he entered a home for unsuccessful young louts, called Duke's. But I can see you’re getting very upset, but I don’t want you to, because every cloud has a silver lining, and every silver lining has a cloud. Every bin has a liner. And it was in this bin that Albert wrote some fantastically boring books. He wrote such literary classics as Romeo & Albert and A Midsummer Night’s Albert. Albert: A Space Odyssey. Albert Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest. A horror film called Albert: Prince of Darkness. The Return of Albert. The Return of the Brides of Evil of Albert. And so it goes on. And the big change for him came when he started writing sex books. We have a very, very big one called Danish Albert on the Job; a big hit for him! 7Wow, so “Duke’s Travels” is something literal! After some journeying around the world he entered a home called Duke's, so they were literally the Travels to Duke's! And saaaaay! That “Guide Vocal” reprise with all its intensity is just Albert writing his books with an “I’ll show you!” kind of attitude! This also explains the reprise of “Behind the Lines”, come to think of it! He’s gone from “It’s written in the book” to writing books himself by “Duke’s End”. It’s a strange story, yes, but I think we’ve done it! I think we’ve cracked the code of this whole thing!
Phil: And now, to the music! Which has got nothing to do with Albert; I was deliberately wasting your time. This is some music from our album called Duke, and we call it - pretty cleverly - “Music From Our Album Called Duke”. OK! 7Well s---.
Phil: The group compositions are the strongest. A lot of that is down to the rhythms...But the group compositions are definitely breaking new ground...I wanted to do a long song with some substance...So basically we put a lot of things together between us…“Duke’s Travels” and “Duke’s End” were riffs that we wrote as we went along. We intended it to be one 25 minute piece but when we came to the practicalities of the album, the solo songs on the second side wouldn’t have run so well, so we had to split it all up. 21. 2007 Box Set
Tony: This album, I have to be honest...this is my favorite Genesis album really. It has such a sort of positive quality about it. I love the way it starts; I love “Duchess”, I think it works fantastically; and I love all the instrumental stuff towards the end, too, although I think [the album’s conclusion] starts a little weak. But it just gets really good. 1
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